Bitcoin's Price Correction Sparks Debate on Cycle Peak

Tony Severino, a prominent crypto analyst, recently shared an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s historical price behavior on the social media platform X. His analysis focuses on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, a concept widely accepted within the crypto community. Severino’s insights are particularly relevant given Bitcoin’s recent price correction below $90,000 in March.

Severino’s analysis is grounded in the belief that Bitcoin operates in four-year cycles, primarily driven by its halving events. He uses a cycle indicator on the monthly candlestick timeframe chart dating back to 2013 to support his technical outlook. According to his analysis, Bitcoin has experienced four distinct cycles, each marked by troughs and crests. Troughs represent the lowest points in the market, offering maximum financial opportunity, while crests signify periods of maximum financial risk.

As these cycles progress, Bitcoin transitions through phases of increasing optimism, culminating in what Severino terms the “cyclical crest.” These crests, highlighted in red on his chart, are points where Bitcoin has reached its peak financial risk. Historically, the Bitcoin price has topped out shortly after passing each cyclical crest. In the current market cycle, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $108,786 in January 2025, just before passing through its crest. The coming months will reveal whether a top has already been reached.

Bitcoin has been on a correction path since February, currently down by 20% from its $108,786 price high. The price even corrected as low as $78,780 in the second week of March, sparking debates about whether Bitcoin has already reached its peak for this cycle. However, not all crests are immediately followed by market tops. Severino noted that past cycles have featured “right-translated” peaks, where Bitcoin continued to rise slightly even after crossing the crest. The 2017 bull run was the most right-translated, with strong price action persisting for some time after the red-zone crest. In contrast, other cycles began reversing shortly after reaching this point of maximum risk.

According to Severino’s model, Bitcoin has already passed the red crest, but this does not confirm a top just yet. Instead, it indicates that the margin for error is rapidly narrowing. The longer Bitcoin continues to correct after this point, the higher the risk of entering a bearish phase becomes. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is attempting to regain bullish momentum, trading at $87,300 after rising 3.6% in the past 24 hours. Many other analysts suggest that the Bitcoin price could still reach higher levels this year before a definitive top is confirmed.