Bitcoin Price Bounces 10% From $75,000 Low, Analysts Cautious

Bitcoin (BTC) has recently shown signs of recovery, with its price bouncing back from a local bottom near $75,000 on April 7 and 9. This rally has sparked discussions among analysts about whether BTC is on the verge of reversing its downward trend, which has persisted since the start of the year. Veteran trader Peter Brandt, however, remains skeptical, dismissing the significance of trendlines in chart construction and noting that a trendline violation does not necessarily signify a transition in the BTC trend.

On the other hand, analyst Kevin Svenson sees reason for cautious optimism, highlighting a possible weekly RSI breakout. He points out that once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators. However, the ultimate driver of price is supply and demand, and while both sides of the equation are beginning to show subtle signs of recovery, they are yet to reach the levels needed for a proper breakout. Furthermore, the bulls must cut through a dense sell wall near $86,000 to confirm the reversal.

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand, measured by the 30-day net difference between exchange inflows and outflows, is showing early signs of recovery after a sustained dip into negative territory. However, analysts caution against prematurely declaring a trend reversal, as similar conditions occurred during the 2021 cycle peak, where demand remained low or negative for months, and true structural recovery only followed extended consolidation. This current uptick in demand may simply mark a pause in selling pressure, not a definitive bottom sign. Time and confirmation are still needed to confirm a shifting momentum.

From a trader’s perspective, the apparent demand metric does not look optimistic just yet. Bitcoin daily trade volumes currently hover around 30,000 BTC (spot) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives), which is, respectively, 6x and 3x less compared to the June-July 2021 period that preceded the last bull run of the 2019-2022 cycle. Despite hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period, current volume dynamics suggest a more subdued trader appetite.

Institutional investors confirm the low demand trend. Since April 3, the spot BTC ETFs have recorded continuous outflows totaling over $870 million, with the first modest inflow not occurring until April 15. Despite this, trading volumes remain relatively high — only 18% below the 30-day average — indicating that some investor appetite for Bitcoin persists.

On the supply side, liquidity remains weak. According to Glassnode’s recent report, the realized cap growth has slowed to 0.80% per month, pointing to a continued lack of meaningful new capital entering the Bitcoin network. Furthermore, the BTC balance on exchanges has dropped to just 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since November 2018. Yet, on a broader macroeconomic level, some analysts see reasons for cautious hope. Independent market analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out the quickly rising M2 Supply, which, with a certain lag, has often influenced Bitcoin price in the past. If the correlation remains, he wrote, then I assume that we'll see Bitcoin rally to an ATH in this quarter.

Even if bullish momentum and demand returns, Bitcoin will need to clear a critical resistance zone between $86,300 and $86,500. Alphractal adds another layer of insight through its Alpha Price Chart, which incorporates realized cap, average cap, and onchain sentiment — and comes to the same conclusion. According to the chart, BTC must decisively break above $86,300 to restore short-term bullish sentiment. If the price weakens again, support levels lie at $73,900 and $64,700.

Overall, calling a trend reversal at this stage may be premature. Liquidity remains thin, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and investors remain cautious. Still, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 signals strong support from long-term holders. A decisive breakout above $86,300 could shift market sentiment—and, in a best-case scenario, ignite a new rally. For such a move to be meaningful, however, it must be backed by spot market volume, not just leverage-driven activity.