Bitcoin Price to Go Beyond $53 Million in 2050? VanEck Explains Why It's Possible

VanEck has released a long-term capital market outlook suggesting Bitcoin could reach $53.4 million per coin by 2050 under a bull scenario. This forecast assumes a 29% compound annual growth rate over the next 25 years, driven by Bitcoin's adoption in global trade and central bank reserves according to VanEck's analysis.

The firm outlines three scenarios for Bitcoin's future value. In its base case, the asset is projected to rise to $2.9 million by 2050, representing a 15% annual growth rate. This would require Bitcoin to capture 5–10% of global trade and become a reserve asset held by central banks as the report indicates.

VanEck's bear case assumes a more modest 2% annual growth rate, bringing Bitcoin to $130,000 by 2050. This scenario reflects slower adoption and limited integration into trade or reserve assets according to the analysis.

Why Did This Happen?

The bull case depends on a concept VanEck calls 'hyper-bitcoinization,' where Bitcoin becomes a dominant force in international trade and domestic GDP. The firm estimates that if Bitcoin captures 20% of international trade and 10% of domestic GDP, its value could reach $53.4 million according to VanEck's projections.

This level of adoption would require Bitcoin to surpass gold as a primary global reserve asset, constituting nearly 30% of world financial assets. Such a transformation would reflect a significant shift in how global economies view and use digital assets as reported by Bitcoin Magazine.

How Did Markets React?

As of January 11, 2026, Bitcoin trades at $90,319, which is 3% below its October all-time high of $126,080. This price is nearly 3,100% off the firm's 2050 base case target of $2.9 million and more than 59,000% below the bull case according to Yahoo Finance data.

Analysts have noted that even the base case represents a massive price appreciation. Bitcoin is currently 43% below the 2050 bear case projection of $130,000, highlighting the wide range of potential outcomes as Economic Times reports.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

VanEck sees Bitcoin as a strategic, low-correlation asset for institutional portfolios. The firm recommends a 1–3% allocation in diversified portfolios, with higher-risk investors potentially allocating up to 20% according to CoinTelegraph.

Historical data supports the benefits of including Bitcoin in a traditional 60/40 equity-bond portfolio. A 3% allocation has historically yielded the highest return per unit of risk, according to Cryptobriefing analysis.

The firm's long-term assumptions also highlight Bitcoin's role as a hedge against monetary debasement and sovereign debt risks. As global liquidity expands, Bitcoin's value is expected to rise in response to structural deficiencies in the current monetary system as CryptoPotato reports.

VanEck's projections are based on Bitcoin's potential to serve as both a settlement currency and a reserve asset. The firm expects central banks to allocate up to 2.5% of their balance sheets to Bitcoin by 2050 according to Benzinga analysis.

Current market conditions suggest Bitcoin is mid-cycle, with onchain metrics like the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) at 0.43, below the 0.70 level historically associated with market tops according to VanEck's blog.

Futures funding rates at 4.9% indicate balanced sentiment, with room for further price appreciation. This metric is significantly lower than the 10%+ levels typically seen before major market reversals according to Investing.com analysis.