Bitcoin's Power Shift: Whales Fade, Middle Investors Rise

Bitcoin whales have offloaded a record amount of holdings in recent months, according to on-chain analytics, with the largest sell-off since July 2022 observed in August 2025. Large investors holding 1,000–10,000 BTC collectively sold 114,920 BTC, valued at approximately $12.75 billion, marking a significant shift in the market dynamic [1]. This aggressive profit-taking has contributed to downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, which has fallen from its mid-August peak of $124,457 to around $111,000 as of late September [1]. Analysts warn that sustained selling, combined with bearish historical signals, could push Bitcoin below the key $100,000 level in the coming weeks [1].

The whale-driven sell-off contrasts with a notable increase in activity among mid-sized investors. On-chain data reveals that wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC have grown in size, suggesting a redistribution of Bitcoin holdings from large institutional players to smaller, institutional, or ETF custody accounts [3]. Analysts describe this trend as a shift from "Big Fish Down" to "Medium Players Up," indicating that the market is fragmenting into more diversified ownership structures [3]. This development may signal a broader adoption of Bitcoin by institutions, including corporate treasury allocations and ETF inflows, which could serve as a counterbalance to whale selling [2].

Despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory remains resilient. The cryptocurrency has corrected only 13% from its mid-August high, a relatively shallow pullback compared to previous cycles. The one-year moving average for Bitcoin has risen from $52,000 in 2024 to $94,000 as of September 2025, reflecting a strong underlying trend [1]. Institutional buyers have also contributed to price stability, with corporate entities such as Metaplanet Inc. increasing their Bitcoin holdings [2]. This accumulation by institutions suggests that long-term demand for Bitcoin remains robust despite short-term profit-taking by whales.

Market dynamics show mixed signals for the near term. While whale selling pressure has decreased from a peak of 95,000 BTC in a single week to approximately 38,000 BTC per week, technical indicators remain mixed [2]. Bitcoin has been consolidating in a tight price range between $109,000 and $112,000, with some analysts warning of a potential "head and shoulders" pattern that could lead to a sharper decline toward $106,000 if key resistance levels fail [2]. The Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision on September 17 is also expected to influence broader liquidity conditions and may affect Bitcoin’s performance [2].

The broader macroeconomic context continues to play a role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. Open interest (OI) for Bitcoin futures has reached record levels in 2025, reflecting increased market participation and optimism following the recent price recovery [4]. This surge in OI aligns with previous bullish cycles, including the post-November 2024 rally following the U.S. presidential election, when Bitcoin rose from $94,000 to $107,000 in a month [4]. Combined with Bitcoin’s recent breakout above its 200-day EMA, these indicators point to a potential continuation of the bullish trend, with some analysts predicting a move toward $125,000 and beyond [4].

Source:

[1] title1 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysts-warn-100k-dip-bitcoin-082722215.html)

[2] title2 (https://bitcoinist.com/whales-dump-115000-btc-in-largest-distribution-2022/)

[3] title4 (https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-ownership-shifts-whales-cash-out-as-mid-tier-investors-rise-in-2025/)

[4] title7 (https://cryptodnes.bg/en/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-could-rally-to-125k-as-traders-join-the-rally/)