Bitcoin's Potential for Continued Rally in September-October 2025: Macro Tailwinds and Structural Demand Converge

The Macro Case: Easing Policy, Weak Dollar, and Global Liquidity

Bitcoin's September-October 2025 rally is being fueled by a perfect storm of macroeconomic tailwinds. The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September 2025-bringing the policy rate to 4.00–4.25%-has shifted the monetary landscape from restrictive to accommodative. This easing of real yields has directly benefited risk assets, including Bitcoin, by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like crypto, according to an Invezz analysis.

Simultaneously, the U.S. dollar has weakened, with the DXY index hovering near 98, reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a high-beta expression of global liquidity. This dynamic mirrors the 2020–2021 period, when Bitcoin surged amid similar conditions of loose monetary policy and low real yields, as noted in the Invezz analysis. Gold's record highs above $3,900 an ounce further validate this trend, as both assets serve as hedges against fiat devaluation (Invezz).

A critical wildcard is the potential for the Fed to adopt yield curve control-a policy last seen during World War II. By artificially suppressing yields, the Fed could signal prolonged easy money, supercharging Bitcoin's rally through increased liquidity and risk-on sentiment, the Invezz analysis adds.

Structural Demand: Institutions, Halving, and Regulatory Clarity

Beyond macro forces, structural demand drivers are amplifying Bitcoin's upside. The approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has unlocked a flood of institutional capital. In Q3 2025 alone, ETFs attracted $118 billion in inflows, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) amassing over $86 billion in assets under management, according to a MarketMinute article. This institutional adoption is not speculative but strategic: corporate Bitcoin treasuries now hold 1.3 million BTC, or 6.2% of the total supply, as businesses allocate a median of 10% of their net income to Bitcoin, per a Business Initiative report.

Post-halving dynamics are also creating a supply-demand imbalance. Bitwise data reveals that institutional demand has absorbed 690,000 BTC, while new supply stands at just 109,000 BTC-making demand 6.3 times greater than supply, according to an Aurpay analysis. This scarcity, combined with the 2024 halving's reduced block rewards, is tightening Bitcoin's supply curve and reinforcing its value proposition.

Regulatory clarity has further de-risked Bitcoin for institutional players. The SEC's approval of spot ETFs and the passage of the GENIUS Act for stablecoin regulation have created a framework for mainstream adoption. Notably, the rescinding of SAB 121 under President Trump's executive order has removed a key barrier for crypto ETFs, enabling $7.8 billion in Q3 inflows, according to a BTCC report.

Global Liquidity and the Eurozone Factor

Global macroeconomic tensions are indirectly supporting Bitcoin. In the eurozone, France's deepening TARGET2 deficit and rising foreign ownership of its government bonds signal potential capital outflows. If the ECB intervenes with quantitative easing, it could inject liquidity into global markets, indirectly boosting Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value, the Invezz analysis explains. While capital controls remain unlikely, the mere possibility has driven retail and institutional buyers to accumulate BTC as a censorship-resistant asset, per Invezz.

Technical and On-Chain Indicators

Bitcoin's price action also suggests a bullish setup. After consolidating near $95,000–$97,000 in mid-2025, on-chain data indicates accumulation by long-term holders. The RSI is trending near overbought levels, and a golden cross in the 50-day and 200-day EMAs supports continued upside momentum, as detailed in the Aurpay analysis. Retail demand is surging as well, with wallet cohorts accumulating BTC at the highest rate since April 2025 (Aurpay).

Outlook and Risks

While the base case targets $130,000–$180,000 by Q4 2025, risks remain. Regulatory headwinds, macroeconomic instability, or security vulnerabilities could disrupt the rally. However, the convergence of macro tailwinds, structural demand, and institutional adoption suggests Bitcoin is poised to test-and potentially exceed-$145,000 by year-end, according to the Aurpay analysis.

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