Bitcoin's Potential for a Bounce or Deeper Correction: A Technical Analysis of Fibonacci Retracements and RSI Signals

Bitcoin's recent price action in November 2025 has sparked intense debate among traders and analysts. After a 6% drop on November 4, 2025, sending prices below $100,000 for the first time in three months, the cryptocurrency now faces a critical juncture. This article examines whether the current $99,000 level represents a short-term bounce or a prelude to a deeper correction toward $78,000, using Fibonacci retracement levels, RSI indicators, and trendline analysis as key tools.

Fibonacci Retracements: A Historical Anchor for Support

Bitcoin's price has historically found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level during major corrections. As of November 2025, this level sits near $100,500, a threshold that has repeatedly acted as a psychological floor since 2023, according to a CryptoPotato report. The current price of $99,000 suggests a potential test of this level, with traders closely watching for a rebound. Analysts like Cas Abbé have warned that a monthly close below $100,500 could signal the end of the three-year bull run, as noted by CryptoPotato.

The 38.2% level is particularly significant because it aligns with compressed Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart, a pattern often preceding sharp price moves, as noted by CryptoPotato. If Bitcoin holds above $100,500, the next key resistance lies at $105,000, where a decisive close with strong volume could trigger a rally toward $110,000, according to a Yahoo Finance article. Conversely, a breakdown below $100,500 would likely target the 50% Fibonacci level at $96,500, with further support at $98,000, according to a Yahoo Finance report.

RSI: Oversold Conditions and Divergence Signals

Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, with the daily RSI plunging to 21.89 on November 5, 2025, according to a Kitco market update. While the traditional oversold threshold is 30, the current RSI of 38 suggests that selling pressure is waning, and bargain hunters may begin to accumulate at these levels, a point also noted in the Yahoo Finance article. This divergence between price and RSI-a common precursor to reversals-adds complexity to the bearish narrative.

However, the RSI's inability to break above 40 for sustained periods indicates lingering bearish momentum. A confirmation of a bullish reversal would require a daily close above $105,000 with strong volume, aligning RSI and price action, as the Yahoo Finance piece observes. If this fails, the RSI could remain in oversold conditions, prolonging the correction toward $78,000, a level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the October high.

Trendline Breaches and Institutional Sentiment

Galaxy Digital's recent analysis underscores the importance of the $100,000 level as a structural support for the bull market, detailed in a Galaxy Digital update. The firm revised its year-end 2025 price target from $185,000 to $120,000, citing heavy whale selling, ETF-driven absorption, and declining retail participation as key risks. Maintaining $100,000 is critical to preserving the three-year bull market's integrity, though the pace of growth may slow.

The Keltner Channel and MACD indicators further reinforce bearish momentum, with Bitcoin trading near the lower band of the channel, a point highlighted by Yahoo Finance. A breach of the $96,500 support could trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline toward $78,000.

Strategic Entry vs. Caution: A Balancing Act

For traders considering a strategic entry, the $100,500 level offers a high-probability setup. A successful rebound here could rekindle bullish momentum, targeting $110,000 and beyond. However, the risks of a deeper correction remain elevated, particularly if institutional selling persists or macroeconomic pressures intensify.

Conversely, a breakdown below $96,500 would invalidate the bullish case, with $78,000 becoming the next critical test. Investors should also monitor capital flows into AI and gold, which are diverting attention from Bitcoin in a year marked by strong returns in these sectors, as Galaxy Digital notes.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's near-term trajectory hinges on its ability to defend the $100,500 Fibonacci level. While the RSI suggests oversold conditions and potential for a rebound, the broader technical picture remains mixed. Traders must weigh the historical significance of Fibonacci retracements against the risks of a trendline breach and institutional selling. For now, a cautious approach-using $100,500 as a dynamic support/resistance pivot-appears prudent in navigating this pivotal phase of the bull market.