Bitcoin's Potential $98K–$104K Pump: A Strategic Bull Case Before the Bearish Rejection

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has been a masterclass in market structure, with the $98K–$104K range emerging as a critical battleground between bulls and bears. While technical indicators and order book imbalances suggest a bearish bias in the short term, options-driven mechanics and strategic positioning by institutional players hint at a potential countertrend rally. This analysis dissects the interplay between technical momentum and derivatives dynamics to outline a compelling bull case for Bitcoin ahead of its next major directional move.

Technical Momentum: A Bearish Framework with Hidden Catalysts

Bitcoin's recent rejection at the $104K–$106K resistance zone has reinforced a bearish narrative, with the 9/21 EMA crossover and daily death-cross (100-day vs. 200-day moving averages) confirming a structural downtrend. The price has since retreated to $98,500, where the Stochastic RSI has plunged into oversold territory, signaling short-term exhaustion. However, this oversold condition is not a guaranteed reversal signal; it merely indicates that further downside could occur if liquidity is swept from the $98K–$96K buy stacks currently visible in the order book.

Key support levels at $98,300 and $96K–$95,500 are critical for near-term stability. A breakdown below $96K would expose the $80K–$83K accumulation zone, where on-chain data suggests whales have been quietly accumulating. Conversely, a rebound above $90K–$92K could trigger a retest of the $96K–$98K inefficiency zone, where historical buying pressure and spot demand may reignite bullish momentum.

Options-Driven Dynamics: A Bullish Undercurrent in Derivatives Markets

While technicals paint a bearish picture, Bitcoin's options market tells a different story. The put/call ratio of 0.57 (as of November 2025) reflects a strong bullish bias, with traders favoring call options over puts. A notable Risk Reversal strategy-selling out-of-the-money puts at $98K while buying out-of-the-money calls at $115K-highlights market participants' expectation of a directional move within the $90K–$110K range. This setup suggests that institutional players are hedging against downside risks while positioning for a potential rebound.

The Max Pain level at $100K further underscores the gravitational pull of this price range. Open interest in the $98K–$104K corridor is concentrated around key strikes, with the 6 June 2025 expiry showing significant positioning at $98K and $115K. This liquidity clustering implies that a break above $100K could trigger forced buying from options sellers, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy for a short-term rally.

Strategic Bull Case: Aligning Technical and Options Mechanics

The convergence of technical and options-driven factors creates a unique opportunity for a strategic bull case. Here's how the pieces align:

1. Oversold Conditions and Order Book Imbalances: Bitcoin's current price near $98,500 has pushed the Stochastic RSI into oversold territory, historically a precursor to short-term rebounds. The order book's thick sell walls at $102K–$105K and deep buy stacks at $98K–$96K suggest a potential "buy the dip" scenario if the price stabilizes above $96K.

2. Options Expiry Dynamics: The $23.8 billion in options expiring on December 26, 2025, creates a gravitational pull toward the $98K–$104K range. This expiry coincides with the Santa Claus Rally, a seasonal pattern where markets often surge in late December. A breakout above $100K post-expiry could trigger a cascade of forced buying from options sellers, amplifying upward momentum.

3. Institutional Positioning: On-chain data reveals that long-term holders have been offloading Bitcoin into strength, a classic distribution pattern. However, this activity is concentrated in the $100K–$104K range, where retail participation has surged. If the price reclaims this zone, it could trigger a shift in sentiment, with LTHs potentially stepping in as buyers after the shakeout.

Conclusion: A High-Risk, High-Reward Scenario

Bitcoin's $98K–$104K range is a microcosm of the broader market's tug-of-war between bearish technicals and bullish options-driven mechanics. While the immediate bias remains downward, the interplay of oversold conditions, strategic options positioning, and expiry dynamics creates a compelling case for a countertrend rally. Investors should monitor the $96K–$98K support cluster and the December 26 expiry for potential catalysts. A successful retest of $100K–$104K could reignite the macro uptrend, but a breakdown below $96K would signal a deeper correction. As always, risk management remains paramount in this volatile environment.