Bitcoin's Potential $100,000 Retest Amid Geopolitical Turmoil and Market Liquidations: A Macro-Driven Buying Opportunity?

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has been a study in contrasts. While geopolitical tensions and market liquidations have created headwinds, the cryptocurrency's on-chain metrics and institutional demand suggest a resilient undercurrent. As the asset navigates a complex interplay of macroeconomic stability, ETF inflows, and seasonal volatility, investors are left to weigh whether short-term corrections could signal long-term opportunities.

The ETF Inflow Paradox: Stabilizing Force or Fleeting Catalyst?

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have emerged as a critical pillar of Bitcoin's price resilience. According to a Coinotag report, ETF inflows surged to $460 million in late October 2025, with daily volumes peaking at $202 million by October 29. This institutional demand has partially offset broader market weakness, including a $35 billion sell-off by long-term holders in October. However, the pace of inflows remains below historical benchmarks-daily volumes hover below 1,000 BTC, far from the 2,500 BTC thresholds seen in prior bull cycles.

The disconnect between ETF inflows and price action raises questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin's recovery. While the realized cap has risen by $8 billion to exceed $1.1 trillion, reflecting strong on-chain demand, this metric alone cannot offset structural selling pressures; analysts like Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant caution that Bitcoin's retest of $100,000 will depend on a resumption of large-scale acquisitions by entities like MicroStrategy, which have slowed in recent months, as noted in a TradingView report.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and the Macroeconomic Safety Net

Bitcoin's macro-driven narrative has gained traction as a hedge against geopolitical instability. The U.S.-China trade dynamics and potential tariff hikes in late October 2025 triggered a brief but sharp correction, with Bitcoin's price plummeting during the October 10 flash crash, while the Federal Reserve's anticipated 0.25% rate cut in late 2025 provided a counterbalance, weakening the U.S. Dollar and boosting risk-on sentiment, according to an Investing.com analysis.

Historical parallels suggest that Bitcoin thrives in environments of monetary easing. Data from Investing.com indicates that Bitcoin's $120,000 breakout in 2025 was preceded by a 3.5% monthly surge in ETF inflows, pushing institutional holdings to 12% of the total supply. This aligns with the asset's evolving identity as a macro-sensitive store of value, increasingly tied to liquidity cycles and global M2 money supply trends.

Seasonal Strength and the Path to $140,000

Despite near-term volatility, the fourth quarter has historically favored Bitcoin. Seasonal strength, coupled with the Fed's dovish pivot, could propel the asset toward $140,000 if ETF inflows regain momentum. However, this scenario hinges on resolving the current imbalance between inflows and outflows. For instance, while Solana ETFs attracted $197 million in three days, Bitcoin and Ethereum faced outflows, signaling a reallocation of capital toward high-performance blockchains, a dynamic highlighted in recent market coverage.

The broader crypto market's fragmentation complicates Bitcoin's dominance. Solana's TVL declined by 3% in 24 hours, highlighting a lag between ETF inflows and on-chain activity. This suggests that while institutional capital is flowing into crypto, it is not uniformly concentrated in Bitcoin, creating a more competitive landscape.

Conclusion: Navigating the Correction for Long-Term Gains

Bitcoin's retest of $100,000 is not a foregone conclusion but a probabilistic outcome shaped by macroeconomic stability and institutional behavior. Short-term corrections, while painful, may present buying opportunities for investors aligned with the long-term thesis of Bitcoin as a macro asset. The key will be monitoring ETF inflow volumes, Fed policy signals, and the pace of institutional adoption.

As the market grapples with geopolitical risks and internal fragmentation, Bitcoin's ability to withstand these pressures will ultimately determine whether the $100,000 level becomes a floor or a fleeting milestone.