Bitcoin's Post-Halving Gains Decline, But 50%-150% Growth Possible

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced significant price fluctuations in recent weeks, dropping to around $77,000 before rebounding over 10% to reclaim the $85,000 price zone. This volatility has sparked doubts about the sustainability of the current bull run. However, on-chain analytics firm IntoTheBlock suggests that the market peak may not have been reached yet, based on historical data.

IntoTheBlock's recent analysis indicates that Bitcoin's post-halving returns have been declining with each cycle. The halving event, which occurs every four years, reduces the block reward for miners by half, thereby maintaining the scarcity of new tokens. Following the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin saw market gains peaking at around 6,000% to 8,000%, stabilizing at 1,600% to 4,000%. The second halving resulted in gains of around 2,000%, settling at 600%. After the third halving in May 2020, gains were modest, not exceeding 600%.

This pattern of diminishing returns suggests that Bitcoin's growth potential is reducing as the market matures. Currently, the fourth cycle has seen peak gains of 60% post-halving. IntoTheBlock analysts project maximum market gains between 50% and 150%, indicating potential for further price growth. Historically, Bitcoin has reached its market peak 12 to 18 months post-halving, suggesting significant appreciation between mid-2025 and late 2025. However, current market conditions, including institutional interest and recent government policies, may influence this timeline.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $84,391, reflecting a 1.64% decline over the past week. Despite the recent volatility, the analysis from IntoTheBlock provides a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin's future performance, suggesting that the current cycle still has room for growth.