Bitcoin Poised for Rally as Geopolitical Tensions Ease and Inflation Falls 14%

Bitcoin is poised for a rally as geopolitical tensions ease and inflation expectations fall. Leading crypto exchange witnessed a significant outflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum on June 23, with investors pulling out over 4,000 BTC and 61,000 ETH in a single day. This shift comes amid easing geopolitical tensions and declining inflation, fuelling speculation about a renewed rally.

According to a recent analysis, Bitcoin is likely to resume its upward trajectory, bolstered by a series of recent macroeconomic and geopolitical developments. One of the key developments was an announcement by US President, who stated that a ceasefire agreement had been reached between Israel and Iran. This deal removes the immediate threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil supply.

The ceasefire had an immediate and positive effect on global equity markets, with the S&P 500 index surpassing 6,000 for the first time since February 2025. This recovery signals growing investor confidence as geopolitical risks subside. In addition, crude oil prices dropped by 14%, adding to the disinflationary narrative. Lower energy costs help reduce production and transportation expenses, thereby supporting a broader decline in inflationary pressures.

The convergence of significant crypto outflows from Binance, falling oil prices, a bullish breakout in US equities, and the reduction of Middle Eastern tensions presents a striking scenario. With the geopolitical overhang removed, inflation easing, and macro markets stabilizing, Bitcoin is now well-positioned to resume its upward trajectory.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales – wallets holding large amounts of BTC – appear to be quietly accumulating in anticipation of a breakout. Whale accumulation has been rising steadily since BTC bottomed in April. Whale activity typically increases during periods of low market attention or heightened fear, often foreshadowing bullish reversals. Historical data supports this trend, showing that increased accumulation often precedes significant price surges.

In an X post published today, seasoned crypto analyst stated that BTC is set to close a bullish monthly candle, reinforcing the long-term uptrend for the flagship cryptocurrency. Several other on-chain and technical indicators also suggest further upside potential. For example, Bitcoin Binary CDD shows that long-term holders are continuing to hold rather than sell, indicating strong conviction in BTC’s long-term value.

At the same time, the number of short positions is climbing as BTC consolidates between $100,000 and $110,000. This dynamic raises the probability of a short squeeze, potentially propelling Bitcoin to a new ATH. At press time, BTC trades at $105,408, up 5.2% in the past 24 hours.