Bitcoin Plummets 12% to $74,000, Analyst Predicts 48% Drop to $38,000

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant price crash, dropping to $74,000, which has sparked speculation among traders about whether this marks the bottom for the cryptocurrency. However, a CMT-certified analyst has suggested that the price correction for Bitcoin is far from over. The analyst predicts that Bitcoin’s price could drop even further, potentially reaching a bottom in the range of $38,000 to $42,000.

According to the analyst, the current price decline to $74,000 is just the beginning of a broader corrective pattern. The analyst’s detailed Elliott Wave-based chart analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s 5-wave impulsive structure has completed its final leg near $85,000. This analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency is now entering an ABC corrective pattern, which could drive the price down to the predicted bottom range of $38,000 to $42,000.

In the 5-wave impulse structure, Wave 1 began with a sharp bear market low, followed by Wave 2, a corrective pullback. Wave 3 marked the strongest upward move, subdivided into five smaller waves (i to v). After a brief pause for a pullback in Wave 4, Wave 5 kicked off with a final push toward a peak near $85,000. Following the top of Wave 5, Bitcoin’s ABC corrective structure began, with the cryptocurrency currently completing Wave A of this corrective pattern. This wave is expected to bottom out near $62,000 to $65,000 by June 2025, coinciding with the previous main correction zone around Wave 4, which is a common target for Wave A retracements.

After the possible crash to $65,000 to $62,000, the analyst anticipates a short-lived bounce in Wave B, followed by a more pronounced decline in Wave C. This downturn is expected to push the Bitcoin price to its final bottom target between $38,000 and $42,000 by April 2026. This pullback target aligns with the iv sub-wave of Wave 3, which often serves as a key retracement zone during market corrections.

The analyst has confirmed through technical analysis that the market is now in a bear phase. The price chart incorporates cyclical timing models, marking a complete market cycle characterized by a bull market peak in 2025, followed by a bear market extending into mid-2026. This timeline is consistent with Bitcoin’s typical four-year halving cycle, where the market reaches its peak the year after the halving event before entering a bear market phase.

Additionally, Bitcoin has just formed a Death Cross on its price chart for the first time since September 2024. A Death Cross occurs when the 50 Moving Average (MA) crosses below the 200 MA. This chart pattern is often considered a bearish sign, indicating that a potential downtrend might be on the horizon. Considering Bitcoin’s price has declined to $78,900 at press time, the appearance of a Death Cross indicates a possibility of further breakdown and consolidation.