Has Bitcoin Already Peaked? Evaluating Technical Divergence, Historical Patterns, and Peter Schiff’s Gold-Driven Macro Outlook

The question of whether Bitcoin has already peaked in 2025 is no longer a speculative debate but a technical and macroeconomic reckoning. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) have signaled bearish divergences, with Bitcoin’s price falling below its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages [1]. The asset is now trading within a descending parallel channel—a corrective pattern rather than a long-term downtrend—while the ascending wedge, confirmed by a shooting star candlestick, suggests a potential breakdown near $98,000 [1]. Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio’s drop below its 365-day moving average underscores the risk of extended corrections [1].

Historical backtests of MACD top divergence signals from 2022 to 2025 reveal mixed reliability. Over 19 detected signals, the average cumulative return over 30 days was approximately 4.8%, modestly outperforming the 3.6% benchmark but lacking statistical significance. Positive drift emerged around day 10, peaking at ~6.4% by day 20, though confidence levels remain low. Win rates fluctuated between 47% (day 1) and 78% (day 12), underscoring the pattern’s inconsistent exploitability [1]. These findings suggest that while MACD divergence can highlight potential turning points, it is not a standalone predictor of Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Yet, these bearish signals must be weighed against countervailing forces. Institutional adoption, including MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin accumulation and Harvard’s IBIT allocation, reinforces Bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve asset [2]. The Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts and the 2025 halving event also provide macroeconomic tailwinds. Historically, Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle has aligned with peaks in October or November, mirroring the 2021 pattern [4]. This tension between technical fragility and macroeconomic optimism defines the current late-cycle environment.

Peter Schiff, the gold standard’s most vocal advocate, offers a stark contrast. He argues that gold’s 25% year-to-date surge—versus Bitcoin’s 14.5%—reflects its superior role as a store of value and safe-haven asset [1]. Central banks’ record gold purchases (1,000 metric tons in 2025) further cement its institutional credibility [1]. Schiff dismisses Bitcoin’s volatility as antithetical to its “digital gold” thesis, noting its 6% drop during the April 2025 oil shock compared to gold’s surge [3]. For him, gold-backed stablecoins—not Bitcoin—offer the best hedge against dollar devaluation [4].

Historical precedents complicate the narrative. During the 2018 bear market and 2020 pandemic, Bitcoin’s 26,931% 10-year return outpaced gold’s 125.8% but came with extreme volatility [2]. In 2020, Bitcoin briefly acted as a diversifier for stock markets, though its effectiveness as a safe haven remained inconsistent [5]. Gold, by contrast, maintained its traditional role, rising 32.2% during the pandemic [2]. These patterns suggest that while Bitcoin can outperform in growth phases, gold remains the default during crises—a dynamic that may intensify in 2025 as geopolitical tensions and dollar devaluation concerns persist [5].

Asset rotation in late cycles now hinges on strategic rebalancing. Investors are allocating 5–10% to Bitcoin for growth and 10–15% to gold for stability [3]. This bifurcation reflects Bitcoin’s risk-on profile (equity correlation of 0.76) and gold’s defensive positioning [3]. However, Bitcoin’s institutional liquidity—reduced by 75% from 2023 levels—introduces fragility [1]. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $114K, a critical psychological level, the risk of a deeper correction looms [3].

The contrarian case for Bitcoin rests on its fixed supply and proof-of-work security, which align with its digital gold analogy [2]. Yet, the substitution dynamic between Bitcoin and gold—where fluctuations in one negatively influence the other—highlights their divergent roles [2]. For investors, the key lies in leveraging both assets: Bitcoin for its potential to capitalize on institutional adoption and macroeconomic tailwinds, and gold for its resilience during de-dollarization and geopolitical shocks [5].

In the end, the question of Bitcoin’s peak is less about timing and more about conviction. Technical indicators and Schiff’s gold-driven macro outlook both point to a market at a crossroads. The answer will depend on whether Bitcoin can reassert its narrative as a store of value—or whether gold’s enduring appeal will dominate the late-cycle rotation.

Source:
[1] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Slides to 2-Month Low But the Sell-Off [https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/bitcoin-btc-price-low-sell-off/]
[2] Bitcoin vs. Gold: Which Is the Superior Inflation Hedge in 2025 [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-gold-superior-inflation-hedge-2025-2508/]
[3] Diverging Trends in Bitcoin and Gold Amid Macroeconomic [https://www.ainvest.com/news/diverging-trends-bitcoin-gold-macroeconomic-uncertainty-strategic-rebalancing-risk-world-2508/]
[4] Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Explained [https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/bitcoin-btc-4-year-cycle/]
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