Bitcoin's Path to a Local Bottom: Key Levels to Watch in 2025

Bitcoin's on-chain fundamentals and institutional cost basis data in 2025 paint a compelling picture of a market teetering on the edge of a critical inflection point. As macroeconomic headwinds persist and speculative fervor wanes, the interplay between technical metrics and institutional positioning offers a roadmap for identifying key support levels. This analysis synthesizes recent on-chain data, institutional cost structures, and valuation ratios to outline Bitcoin's potential path to a local bottom.

On-Chain Metrics Signal Deep Value Zones

Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has plummeted to a 2025 low of 1.54, a level historically associated with extreme capitulation and undervaluation. This metric, which compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value (the cumulative cost basis of all on-chain holdings), suggests that a significant portion of the network is now in a loss position. Specifically, only 62.4% of Bitcoin's supply remains in profit, the lowest level of the year. Such conditions often precede aggressive accumulation by long-term holders, as seen in prior bull cycles like 2017 and 2021.

Complementing this, the NVT (Network Value to Transactions) ratio has stabilized at a "golden-cross" level of ~1.51. This valuation metric, which divides Bitcoin's market capitalization by its daily transaction volume, indicates that the asset's price is increasingly supported by real-world usage rather than speculative momentum. A reading of 1.51 aligns with historical troughs where fundamentals begin to outweigh sentiment, suggesting that Bitcoin's current price is justified by its utility-driven demand.

Institutional Cost Basis: A Structural Floor

Institutional investors, particularly NASDAQ-listed entities like KindlyMD, provide another critical lens for identifying support levels. As of September 30, 2025, KindlyMD reported holding 5,765 BTC at an average cost basis of $118,204 per BTC, representing a total investment of $681 million. This data implies that institutional buyers have established a significant cost basis in the $118,000–$120,000 range, creating a structural floor where further selling pressure is likely to be met with defensive buying.

The alignment of institutional cost bases with on-chain metrics is particularly noteworthy. For instance, the MVRV Z-Score-a normalized version of the MVRV ratio-dropped to 1.43 during Bitcoin's decline from $100,000 to $75,000 in late 2025. This rebound from oversold territory coincided with long-term holders (LTHs) accumulating at lower prices, a pattern observed in prior bull cycles. If Bitcoin were to retest the $75,000 level, institutional buyers with a cost basis above $118,000 would likely step in to defend their positions, creating a multi-layered support structure.

### Macro Risks and the Path Forward
While on-chain fundamentals and institutional positioning suggest a strong case for a local bottom, macroeconomic risks remain a wildcard. Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities means that a global recession or equity market selloff could delay or temper the upward trajectory. However, the current on-chain environment-marked by a "green zone" Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple and selective profit-taking-indicates that the market is not in panic mode. This suggests that even if a correction occurs, it is likely to be shallow and short-lived, with institutional buyers acting as a buffer.

Key Levels to Watch

1. $75,000–$78,000: A retest of this range, where the MVRV Z-Score hit 1.43, could trigger aggressive accumulation by LTHs and institutional buyers.
2. $118,000: The institutional cost basis of KindlyMD represents a critical psychological and structural support level.
3. $125,000–$130,000: A potential target if the NVT ratio continues to trend toward equilibrium, signaling a balance between speculative and fundamental demand.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's path to a local bottom in 2025 is being shaped by a confluence of on-chain signals and institutional behavior. The MVRV ratio's descent into historical capitulation territory, the NVT ratio's alignment with fundamental usage, and institutional cost bases in the $118,000 range collectively form a robust framework for identifying key support levels. While macroeconomic risks persist, the current on-chain environment suggests that Bitcoin is in a mid-cycle phase, with a high probability of finding a floor in the coming months. Investors should closely monitor these levels, as they represent both technical and structural inflection points in the asset's trajectory.