Bitcoin’s Path to a Confirmed Breakout and Retest of All-Time Highs

Bitcoin’s journey in late 2025 has been a study in resilience. After peaking at $124,533 in August, the cryptocurrency faced a 6.5% correction, trading at $108,253 as of September 4, 2025. While historical seasonal patterns—September has averaged -3.77% returns since 2013—loom large, a confluence of technical and on-chain signals suggests a compelling case for a bullish renaissance.

Technical Indicators: A Foundation for Rebound

Bitcoin’s price action has formed a critical battleground between bearish inertia and emerging bullish momentum. Key support levels at $104,000–$100,000, reinforced by the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, have so far held firm. Analysts like Rekt Fencer argue that the market has already priced in a potential September sell-off, with Bitcoin mirroring the 2017 pattern of a post-weak-August rebound [1].

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) adds nuance to this narrative. Despite the recent pullback, the RSI has shown “hidden bullish divergence,” where price lows are lower than RSI lows, signaling latent buying pressure [2]. This divergence, coupled with projected price targets from Changelly and Binance ($108,802–$124,283), suggests a near-term retest of all-time highs within 4–6 weeks [1].

On-Chain Metrics: Structural Strength Amid Volatility

On-chain data reinforces the technical case. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio—a metric historically aligned with market bottoms—generated a Golden Cross in 2025, indicating undervaluation relative to transaction volume [3]. Miner activity further underscores this optimism: long-term holders have reduced selloffs, while operational hashrate growth (e.g., CleanSpark’s 50 EH/s in Q3 2025) reflects sustained network health [5].

Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has surged to $83.76 billion, a 4.14% 24-hour increase, signaling robust participation from institutional and retail traders [3]. However, funding rates in perpetual swaps tell a mixed story. While weekly averages hovered near 0.01%, indicating bullish sentiment, recent bearish shifts in long/short positioning suggest short-term volatility [4]. This duality highlights a market balancing between conviction and caution.

Institutional Accumulation: A Tailwind for Bulls

The most compelling evidence for Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory lies in institutional activity. September 2025 saw a dramatic reversal from August’s $301 million ETF outflows, with spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $748 million in inflows by mid-month. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC led the charge, securing $148.8 million and $132.69 million, respectively [5]. This inflow surge followed the Trump administration’s August 7 executive order unlocking $8.9 trillion in 401(k) capital for Bitcoin investments—a move analysts estimate could inject $89 billion into the market even with a 1% allocation [6].

Corporate accumulation further solidifies this trend. Entities like MicroStrategy continue deploying convertible bonds to purchase Bitcoin, while 100+ BTC address counts hit record highs, signaling whale confidence [1]. Despite ETF outflows in August, Tiger Research’s Time Value of Money (TVM) model projects a $190,000 price target for Q3 2025, factoring in macroeconomic liquidity and Federal Reserve dovishness [6].

The Road Ahead: Balancing Risks and Rewards

While the bullish case is robust, risks persist. Ethereum ETFs’ August inflows ($3.95 billion) and September’s $1.4 billion surge highlight shifting institutional preferences, particularly toward staking opportunities [5]. Additionally, Bitcoin’s MVRV-Z score—a measure of realized value versus market cap—shows early signs of overheating, suggesting caution for overextended positions [6].

Nevertheless, the alignment of technical, on-chain, and institutional signals paints a resilient picture. With support levels intact, NVT divergence favoring buyers, and institutional capital flowing steadily, Bitcoin’s path to retesting $124,533—and potentially surpassing it—is not just plausible but increasingly probable.

Source:
[1] How the Trade War is Reshaping the Global Economy [https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/how-low-can-bitcoin-go-in-september-2025-btc-price-predictions-analysis/]
[2] Analysis: Supply Chain Shifts Amid Trade Uncertainty [https://likerebateforex.com/bitcoin-technical-analysis-btc-usd-5-september-2025]
[3] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Bullish Metrics Flash [https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-btc-price-prediction-bullish-metrics-flash-despite-pullback-to-117k-on-ppi-inflation-report/]
[4] Crypto Derivatives: Analytics Report - Week 36 [https://insights.deribit.com/industry/crypto-derivatives-analytics-report-week-36-2025/]
[5] Digital asset fund flows | September 1st 2025 [https://coinshares.com/us/insights/research-data/fund-flows-01-09-25/]
[6]
25Q3 Bitcoin Valuation Report by Tiger Research