Bitcoin's Path to $140K: Analyzing Network Participation and On-Chain Metrics in October 2025

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics and network participation trends in Q3 and early October 2025 paint a compelling picture of a maturing ecosystem poised for further growth. With the network's hashrate surpassing 1 Zettahash (1.085 ZH at its peak) and institutional adoption accelerating, the cryptocurrency's technical and economic fundamentals suggest a potential price surge above $140K by October 2025.

Network Participation: A Barometer of Institutional Confidence

According to CoinGecko's Bitcoin Report 2025, Bitcoin's active address count reached 944,000 in August 2025, reflecting sustained engagement despite price volatility. This figure, while fluctuating, underscores the network's resilience. Notably, the rise of protocols like Bitcoin Ordinals and Runes has driven innovation, enabling users to inscribe data on the blockchain and tokenize assets, as described in The Bitcoin Boom of September 2025. These developments have expanded Bitcoin's utility beyond value transfer, attracting a broader user base.

Institutional adoption has further solidified network participation. Publicly traded companies now hold 1.3 million BTC-6.2% of the total supply-surpassing 2024's figures by 21x, according to CoinGecko's Bitcoin Report 2025. Specialized treasury firms account for 76% of business BTC purchases, acquiring approximately 1,400 BTC daily, per the same CoinGecko report. This trend, coupled with the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, has seen institutional investors accumulate 1.29 million BTC (6% of the total supply), signaling a shift toward treating Bitcoin as a strategic treasury asset, as highlighted in CoinGecko's Bitcoin Report 2025.

Hashrate and Mining Infrastructure: A Foundation for Security and Growth

The Bitcoin network's hashrate, a critical indicator of security and mining activity, has grown exponentially. By August 2025, it reached an all-time high of 1.085 Zettahashes, with projections of a 5.5% increase in the September difficulty adjustment, according to CoinGecko's Bitcoin Report 2025. This growth is driven by U.S.-based mining firms leveraging alternative energy sources and Chinese manufacturers relocating infrastructure, as noted in the same CoinGecko report. A robust hashrate not only deters attacks but also reinforces investor confidence in the network's long-term viability.

On-Chain Valuation Metrics: A Bullish but Cautious Signal

The Bitcoin Boom of September 2025 reports that Bitcoin's market value to realized value (MVRV) Z-score stood near 2 in Q3 2025, indicating a market in growth phase but far from overheated levels. This metric, which compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value (the sum of all unspent transaction outputs), suggests that while the network remains undervalued relative to prior bull cycles, there is room for further appreciation. Additionally, long-term holders (LTHs) reduced their active supply by 507K BTC as prices hit new highs-a pattern historically observed during bull markets, as summarized in State of the Network.

Transaction data, however, reveals a nuanced picture. While daily confirmed transactions hit record highs of 540,000 in mid-September 2025, driven by Ordinals and Runes (per the LinkedIn piece mentioned above), the average daily transaction volume has contracted to 390–400K, with larger, high-value transfers dominating activity, as reported in An On-chain Ghost Town. This shift reflects Bitcoin's evolving role as a store of value rather than a medium of exchange, aligning with its "digital gold" narrative.

Macroeconomic Alignment and Competitive Dynamics

Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 rose to 0.86 in 2025, indicating closer alignment with traditional markets, according to CoinGecko's Bitcoin Report 2025. This trend, while reducing its role as a hedge against equities, highlights its integration into diversified portfolios. Conversely, its correlation with gold weakened to 0.53, signaling a shift in investor sentiment toward equities and tech-driven assets, per the same CoinGecko report.

Ethereum's outperformance in Q3 2025-marked by a 62% rise in the ETH/BTC ratio-demonstrates capital flows into altcoins, as noted in State of the Network. However, Bitcoin's institutional adoption and hashrate dominance suggest it remains the primary beneficiary of macroeconomic tailwinds, including yield-seeking capital and treasury demand.

Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors for a $140K Surge

The interplay of robust network participation, institutional adoption, and technical strength positions Bitcoin for a potential price surge above $140K in October 2025. While on-chain metrics like the MVRV Z-score and transaction patterns indicate a maturing market, the expansion of mining infrastructure and institutional buying provide a strong foundation for further appreciation. Investors should monitor the September difficulty adjustment and ETF inflows as key catalysts, but the broader narrative of Bitcoin's integration into global finance remains intact.