Bitcoin's Path to $100,000: Can On-Chain Activity Ignite the Next Bull Run?

Bitcoin's journey toward $100,000 hinges on a critical question: Is the network's on-chain activity aligning with the structural buying patterns that historically precede and sustain major bull cycles? As the cryptocurrency enters Q1 2026, the interplay between transaction volume, active addresses, and ETF inflows offers a nuanced picture of market dynamics. While some metrics suggest a transition from bearish consolidation to constructive accumulation, others highlight lingering structural challenges.

Historical Correlations: On-Chain Metrics as Price Catalysts

Bitcoin's on-chain activity has repeatedly served as a leading indicator of price milestones. During the 2017 bull run, active addresses surged from 400,000 to over 1 million, coinciding with a price rise from $1,000 to $20,000. Similarly, in 2021, active addresses peaked at 1.2 million as institutional adoption and retail FOMO drove prices to $68,789. These cycles were underpinned by rising transaction volumes and a MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio exceeding 1.7–1.8, signaling overheated conditions and impending tops.

However, the 2024–2025 period diverged from this pattern. Daily transaction volume declined by 23.1% year-on-year, while the MVRV ratio remained below 1, indicating widespread unrealized losses. This divergence suggested a market in consolidation, with long-term holders reducing profit-taking and short-term traders exiting. Yet, Q4 2025 brought subtle shifts: transaction volume stabilized, and active addresses began reflecting reduced selling pressure.

Current On-Chain Dynamics: A Market in Transition

In Q4 2025 and early 2026, Bitcoin's on-chain metrics revealed a transition from bearish to constructive conditions. By late December 2025, the price had rebounded from a $80k support level, rising 8.5% to $94.4k in early January 2026. This breakout coincided with lower realized profit rates, signaling that long-term holders were no longer aggressively selling. Active addresses, though still below 2021 peaks, showed signs of stabilization, albeit with overhead supply clustered between $92.1k and $117.4k creating friction for further gains.

The MVRV ratio, now below 1, contrasts sharply with previous bull market peaks. While this suggests a cooler market environment, it also raises questions about the depth of institutional and retail participation. Historically, a MVRV above 1.7 has acted as a resistance level, often preceding price corrections. The current ratio's subdued level implies that the network is not yet in a state of euphoria-a potential positive for long-term buyers but a cautionary sign for those expecting rapid, unbridled growth.

ETF Inflows: Structural Buying Resurfaces

The resurgence of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in late 2025 marked a pivotal shift in structural buying patterns. After a period of net outflows, ETFs began accumulating Bitcoin in the final weeks of 2025, coinciding with the price recovery. While these inflows remain below mid-cycle peaks (which reached $169 billion in 2025), their direction-from distribution to accumulation signals institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value.

Notably, Digital Asset Treasuries added 42k BTC to their holdings in mid-December 2025, reflecting strategic accumulation during pullbacks. This behavior aligns with historical patterns where institutional buyers step in during market troughs, providing a floor for price action. However, the magnitude of these inflows remains modest compared to 2021, when ETF holdings accounted for 7.3% of Bitcoin's total supply.

Structural Challenges and the Road Ahead

Despite these positive signals, Bitcoin faces structural headwinds. The overhead supply cluster between $92.1k and $117.4k represents a significant barrier, requiring sustained buying pressure to overcome. Additionally, the 23.1% decline in daily transaction volume from 2024 to 2025 suggests that retail participation-often a catalyst for bull runs-has not yet returned to pre-bear market levels.

For Bitcoin to reach $100,000, on-chain activity must align with the patterns of past cycles. This includes a surge in active addresses, a rise in the MVRV ratio toward 1.7, and a sharp increase in ETF inflows. While the current environment shows early signs of accumulation, the absence of widespread euphoria and the presence of overhead supply mean that the path to $100k will likely be protracted and volatile.

Conclusion: A Cautious Bull Case

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics and ETF inflows paint a cautiously optimistic picture for 2026. The stabilization of transaction volume, the resumption of institutional accumulation, and the price breakout from $80k suggest that the market is transitioning from bearish consolidation to a constructive phase. However, the absence of a full-scale retail and institutional frenzy, coupled with structural supply challenges, means that the $100k milestone will require a confluence of factors seen in previous bull cycles.

Investors should monitor active addresses and the MVRV ratio closely in the coming months. A sustained rise in these metrics, paired with a surge in ETF inflows, could signal the ignition of the next bull run. For now, the market remains in a delicate balancing act-between optimism and caution, accumulation and distribution.