Bitcoin's Parabolic Curve Suggests 323% Rise to $425,000

Bitcoin has recently formed a full four-base setup, which analysts suggest could lead to a significant vertical wave rise, potentially exceeding $400,000. This pattern is part of a classic parabolic formation that has been observed in Bitcoin’s long-term structure. According to analyst Gert van Lagen, the technical pattern on Bitcoin’s weekly chart remains intact, indicating a potential sharp vertical surge in the near future.

Van Lagen’s analysis, presented on June 23, overlays Bitcoin’s movement with a known “parabolic curve step-like formation.” This structure shows four distinct base levels—Base 1 through Base 4—indicating a maturing rally. At each stage, the asset consolidates before breaking higher. Bitcoin has completed all four base stages and is currently rising from Base 4. This formation historically ends with a sharp vertical move, often referred to as the final “Wave 5” in Elliott Wave theory. The chart highlights the final leg upward with a strong blue arrow pointing to a target above $425,000.

The chart also features an overlay of Fibonacci wave counts, with the current position marked as the final wave. Van Lagen indicated that the projected move remains aggressive but technically justified by the consolidation seen earlier in the cycle. The model assumes a nearly vertical price movement from early July, marking a highly speculative but technically aligned scenario. Bitcoin is currently trading around $101,000, having already broken past critical resistance levels from Base 4. Earlier, the “X” mark identified at the end of Base 3 indicated the shortest price acceleration window. Past such signals have preceded rapid gains, doubling the price in days or weeks.

Moreover, previous base breakouts have all followed a defined pattern of minor corrections, suggesting that the trend remains predictable within the model. The appearance of alternating ABC and 12345 Elliott patterns further strengthens the case for continued upside. The latest model from van Lagen projects a final Wave 5 top anywhere between $285,000 and $425,000. The wave count aligns with standard Elliott Wave principles, with Wave 5 often marking the peak of a long-term bull cycle.

Market sentiment also remains supportive, as reflected in the consolidation that began in early 2025. This horizontal consolidation between $85,000 and $101,000 forms the Base 4 platform and fuels the next leg upward. When such consolidation periods are followed by breakout volume, strong price action tends to follow. With Bitcoin holding above key exponential moving averages and volume remaining steady, momentum continues to build. The wave extension now appears more probable due to this sustained support. Many traders are now asking the pivotal question — will Bitcoin complete its parabolic curve and hit the top of Wave 5 before a major reversal begins?

Van Lagen’s chart clearly positions the upcoming weeks as critical. The formation remains valid as long as the structure holds and price maintains above Base 4. This technical framework has historically produced steep rallies that end with equally sharp reversals, so timing is crucial. If the parabolic curve stays active, the price path will likely lead to a top just above $400,000. The Wave 5 projection now shows a possible Bitcoin rally from $100,000 to $425,000 soon, with the sell line around July 7, with extended gains expected.