Bitcoin's Oversold RSI and Macroeconomic Divergence: Is a Rebound Imminent?

Bitcoin's price action in late November 2025 has sparked intense debate among traders and analysts, with conflicting signals emerging from technical indicators and macroeconomic trends. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the cryptocurrency may be nearing oversold territory, broader economic conditions-including central bank policies and inflation dynamics-paint a more nuanced picture. This analysis explores whether Bitcoin's current technical divergence from macroeconomic fundamentals could signal a short-to-medium-term reversal, or if bearish momentum remains entrenched.

Bitcoin's RSI: A Mixed Signal Amid Volatility

Bitcoin's 14-day RSI has oscillated near critical thresholds in recent weeks. As of November 26, 2025, the RSI stood at , indicating a market that is neither overbought nor oversold but approaching the latter. However, other sources report more extreme readings: one analysis noted the RSI at on daily charts, while another highlighted a reading of , suggesting "oversold levels that could support a continuation of the upward movement." This divergence reflects the volatility of the asset class and the importance of timeframes-hourly RSI readings (which reached 50+) contrast sharply with daily and weekly metrics.

Historically, RSI levels below 30 have often preceded rebounds. For instance, in late February 2025, Bitcoin's RSI fell below 30, marking a slowdown in the downtrend and eventually leading to a bottom near $75,000 in early April. However, analysts caution that RSI alone is insufficient to predict reversals. Confirmation from price action-such as support levels or bullish candlestick patterns-is critical.

Macroeconomic Divergence: A Tale of Two Forces

Bitcoin's technical indicators appear to diverge from broader macroeconomic trends. While the RSI hints at potential exhaustion in the downtrend, macroeconomic conditions remain bearish. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for example, has maintained a cautious stance, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noting that inflation "remains somewhat elevated" at 2.95% year-over-year for the CPI. Despite a 0.25% rate cut in October 2025, markets are pricing in a , reflecting uncertainty about the path to the 2% target.

This divergence is particularly striking for Bitcoin, a non-yielding asset. As EndGame Macro analysts observe, the current environment is characterized by "taxed liquidity," where capital is increasingly diverted to high-yield Treasury bills and money-market funds offering 5% returns according to analysis. This dynamic undermines Bitcoin's appeal as a speculative asset, even as its RSI suggests oversold conditions.

Structural Weaknesses and Institutional Sentiment

Bitcoin's bearish bias is further reinforced by structural indicators. The cryptocurrency's price formed a "death cross" on November 16, 2025, when the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, the daily MACD histogram has remained deeply negative, signaling persistent selling pressure. Institutional sentiment is also mixed: while entities like El Salvador and MicroStrategy continue to accumulate Bitcoin, spot ETFs have seen over three weeks. This suggests that long-term holders are buying the dip, but short-term traders are exiting.

The Fear & Greed Index, a sentiment indicator, underscores the bearish mood, with Bitcoin's score at 12-a level classified as "extreme fear" according to analysis. Such extremes often precede rebounds, but they also highlight the fragility of market psychology.

Historical Precedents and Potential Scenarios

Historical patterns offer cautious optimism. In 2023 and 2024, RSI levels below 40 frequently led to upward reversals, with Bitcoin recovering toward the $120K–$135K resistance zone if support above $100K held according to prediction. However, a decisive break below key support levels could trigger a deeper correction toward the 200-week moving average near $88K according to analysis.

The broader macroeconomic environment adds complexity. U.S.-China trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and a fragmented global economic landscape are creating headwinds for risk assets. While Bitcoin's structural scarcity and institutional adoption trajectory remain intact, its role as an inflation hedge is under scrutiny as central banks prioritize rate normalization according to analysis.

Conclusion: A Rebound Is Possible, But Conditions Remain Fragile

Bitcoin's RSI suggests that the market may be nearing a point of exhaustion in the downtrend, particularly if the 14-day RSI dips below 30-a scenario already observed in some analyses according to analysis. However, macroeconomic conditions-including the Fed's hawkish pivot and the allure of high-yield alternatives-pose a significant headwind. A rebound would require not only a confirmation of oversold conditions via price action (e.g., a bullish breakout above $90K) but also a shift in institutional sentiment and macroeconomic clarity.

For traders, the key will be monitoring Bitcoin's interaction with critical support levels and the Fed's December policy decision. If the RSI stabilizes above 30 and the price holds above $100K, a short-term rebound toward $120K–$135K could materialize. However, a breakdown below $88K would likely extend the bearish correction into early 2026. In the current environment, caution remains warranted, but the technical divergence between Bitcoin's RSI and macroeconomic trends offers a compelling case for a tactical long-term position.