Bitcoin's Oversold RSI and Institutional Accumulation Signal a Strong Buy Opportunity Near $110K

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has painted a compelling picture for long-term investors. After a sharp correction that saw the asset dip below $86,000 in November 2025, the market is now at a critical juncture. Technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic catalysts are aligning to suggest a strong buy opportunity near the $110,000 level. This analysis synthesizes these signals to build a case for why Bitcoin's current oversold conditions and institutional accumulation patterns point to a significant rebound.

Technical Analysis: RSI Divergence and Oversold Conditions

Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered a critical phase. As of November 2025, the 14-day RSI stands at 40.50, placing the asset in neutral territory, while the weekly RSI has dipped to 39, signaling oversold conditions. This divergence-where prices continue to fall but the RSI shows weakening downward momentum-is a classic precursor to trend reversals. Historically, such levels have coincided with major accumulation phases, as seen in previous cycles like 2015 and 2020.

The RSI's current trajectory is further reinforced by bullish on-chain activity. For instance, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator recently crossed above the zero line for the first time since October 2025, signaling renewed buying pressure. Additionally, the Puell Multiple-a metric tracking miner revenue-has fallen to 0.67, its lowest level in years, suggesting Bitcoin is undervalued relative to mining costs and hinting at a potential rebound toward $96,000 in the near term.

On-Chain Metrics: Institutional Confidence Amid Volatility

Institutional activity has been a key driver of Bitcoin's resilience. Despite a $1-billion liquidation wave in November 2025, corporate entities have continued to accumulate. Data from on-chain analytics platforms reveals that institutions purchased 18,700 BTC in November 2025, bringing their total holdings to 1,860,977 BTC. This accumulation, even amid a 33% drawdown from the all-time high of $126,000, underscores institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

A notable example is a major whale shifting from a $91 million short position to a long position, accumulating 1,000 BTC. Such moves by large players often signal a shift in market sentiment. Furthermore, Bitcoin exchange reserves are declining, a trend typically associated with reduced selling pressure and a more favorable environment for price stability. These metrics suggest that while retail investors may be retreating, institutional demand remains robust.

Macroeconomic Catalysts: Policy Shifts and Regulatory Clarity

Bitcoin's price trajectory is inextricably linked to macroeconomic trends. Central bank policy, particularly the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, has introduced headwinds for leveraged crypto positions, triggering de-risking and selloffs. However, the market is now pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by year-end, which could alleviate borrowing costs and reignite institutional buying.

Regulatory developments are another critical catalyst. The approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has already injected $3.5 billion in new capital into the market, with institutional holdings now accounting for 12% of total BTC supply-a historic high. Additionally, the potential approval of BlackRock's Ethereum staking ETF could unlock further institutional capital, reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a macro asset.

The $110K Level: A Critical Support Zone

The $110,000 level has emerged as a pivotal support/resistance zone in 2025. Historical patterns show that this level has repeatedly flipped between support and resistance, with successful rejections triggering 12–15% rallies. On-chain metrics like the Mayer Multiple (1.13) and AHR999 Index (0.86) indicate Bitcoin is still undervalued relative to its 200-day moving average. A sustained close above $113,500 could confirm renewed momentum toward $118,000 and eventually $120,000–$122,000.

Technical setups also favor a bullish breakout. Bull flags on the two-week BTC/USD chart project price targets ranging from $186,000 to $192,000, with a near-term target of $115,000 before expanding toward $192,000. The 50-week EMA at $100,000 remains a key support level, and holding above $108,000–$110,000 is critical to maintaining the bullish structure.

Conclusion: A Strong Buy Case for $110K

Bitcoin's current price near $110,000 represents a confluence of favorable technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic conditions. The oversold RSI, institutional accumulation, and regulatory tailwinds create a compelling case for a strong buy opportunity. While risks such as regulatory tightening and macroeconomic volatility persist, the alignment of these factors suggests that the market is poised for a significant rebound. Investors with a long-term horizon should consider accumulating Bitcoin at these levels, as history has shown that cycles often bottom when sentiment is at its most bearish.