Bitcoin Outflows Surge 69% as Long-Term Holders Accumulate

Bitcoin has seen a notable surge in outflows from exchanges, indicating a growing trend of long-term accumulation among investors. This trend is driven by the consistent withdrawal of Bitcoin from exchanges, which has been a key factor behind the cryptocurrency's price increase. The price of Bitcoin has risen beyond $109,000, reflecting strong liquidity and bullish sentiment in the market. This trend is further supported by the fact that long-term holders now control a substantial 69% of the circulating supply, demonstrating their confidence in the market's future prospects.

The ongoing withdrawal of Bitcoin from exchanges signals a deepening trend of long-term accumulation. This accumulation, coupled with strong liquidity, supports a bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency. The surge in liquidity means potentially more money flowing into financial assets, which can preserve purchasing power as government policies and macroeconomic factors continue to influence the market.

Over the past year, large holders, or Bitcoin whales, have offloaded more than 500,000 Bitcoin, worth over $50 billion at current prices. This movement of Bitcoin by whales has created market buzz, but the funds have been transferred to new, non-exchange addresses, suggesting that the move may be for security or custodial purposes rather than an imminent sell-off. This patience from seasoned investors is being met with a steady and significant wave of institutional capital. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a staggering $2.2 billion in net inflows last week alone, highlighting continued accumulation by major players.

The trend of institutional and corporate adoption extends beyond ETF flows. Design software giant Figma disclosed a $70 million holding in the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, an investment that has already appreciated by 27% since its initial purchase in March 2024. This move signals growing corporate confidence not only in Bitcoin but also in promising altcoin ecosystems.

The market dynamic is further supported by strong institutional demand, evidenced by $2.2 billion in weekly net inflows to spot BTC ETFs and Figma's disclosure of a $70 million position in a Bitcoin ETF. This equilibrium between long-term conviction and short-term leverage may require a significant price move to unlock supply and determine the next major trend. The market is caught in a tense standoff between steadfast long-term holders and a surge of leveraged traders, all while ancient whale wallets begin to stir. Early last Friday, the crypto community was set abuzz by the movement of 20,000 BTC, valued at over $2 billion, from two wallets that had been dormant for 14 years. According to on-chain data analyst Lookonchain, these wallets originally received the Bitcoin on April 3, 2011, when BTC was trading at a mere 78 cents. With Bitcoin now trading above $107,000, this represents a monumental 140,000-fold increase, providing a powerful incentive to realize profits. However, the initial panic was quickly tempered by the observation that these funds were transferred to new, non-exchange addresses, which have since remained inactive. This suggests the move may be for security or custodial purposes rather than an imminent sell-off, leaving traders to watch these wallets with keen interest for any further signs of intent.

Bitcoin's price action reflects a broader narrative of disciplined consolidation. During the Asian trading session on Wednesday, BTC was trading around $107,755, pulling back slightly from a high of $109,953 reached during U.S. hours. This price level sits tantalizingly close to the all-time high of $111,000, yet the market sentiment is far from the euphoria seen in previous breakouts. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted in its weekly report that “HODLing appears to be the dominant market mechanic.” This is supported by several key metrics: the long-term holder supply has swelled to a near-record 14.7 million BTC, and the Liveliness metric continues to decline, indicating that older coins are not being spent. Furthermore, the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is hovering just above the breakeven point of 1.0, suggesting that any selling pressure is coming from short-term traders taking small profits, not from long-term investors capitulating.

This patience from seasoned investors is being met with a steady and significant wave of institutional capital. According to a market update from QCP Capital, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a staggering $2.2 billion in net inflows last week alone. The firm described the market tone as “constructive,” highlighting continued accumulation by major players like Strategy and Metaplanet. This influx of “real capital” is evidenced by Bitcoin’s realized cap—a metric valuing each coin at the price it last moved—which has grown to $955 billion. However, this stability is being tested by a build-up of risk in the derivatives market. QCP noted that leveraged long positions are increasing, with funding rates turning positive across major perpetual futures exchanges. This indicates that traders are paying a premium to maintain long exposure, a classic sign of bullish speculation that can lead to volatility. Glassnode warns that this equilibrium is fragile, stating the “market may need to move higher, or lower, to unlock additional supply,” suggesting a significant price move is needed to break the current stalemate.

The outflow/inflow ratio has decreased to 0.9, pointing to a solid accumulation phase and stronger long-term holding behavior on an aggregated level of the market. A lot of companies and governments are adopting Bitcoin in their treasury plans, and this provides more proof of Bitcoin’s developing status as a digital store of value. Long-term holders are increasing, showing sustained spot market demand as exchange outflows continue to dominate current crypto movement trends. Bitcoin outflows are still higher than Bitcoin inflows, indicating a market that’s primarily based on long-term investor conviction. The trend suggests a preference for a hold strategy with increasing adoption by corporations and governments.

Institutional Adoption Supports Outflow Dominance. Outflows continue to dominate, signaling that investors remain confident in the long term. And it's hard not to be, given the growing adoption by major corporations and governments. BTC is gradually evolving into a store of value, increasingly used to strengthen treasury. This behavior is not typical during uncertain market phases, where inflows often rise in preparation for selling. Instead, Bitcoin’s recent trends show maturing market dynamics. The monthly outflow/inflow ratio recently dropped to 0.9. This level has not been registered since the 2023 bear market. When this indicator is below 1, it usually suggests there are more outflows than inflows reinforcing buyer demand and long-term positioning. Times when the ratio rises above 1.05 typically come with selling pressure, these times are often during corrective cycles, or pullbacks in the greater market. Currently, however, the ratio remains well below this threshold. The sustained presence of long-term holders, as noted by @Darkfost_Coc, supports a continued outflow trend. This behavior signals ongoing accumulation, which often stabilizes price volatility over time.

The present outflow trend coincides with a growing number of long-term holders entering the market. This pattern supports a maturing investor base. In recent months, such structural changes have helped maintain price stability amid broader economic uncertainty. As outflows continue to dominate, Bitcoin’s position within global finance appears to be shifting. The move toward treasury integration by major institutions further strengthens the asset’s role beyond short-term speculation. With market participants withdrawing more Bitcoin than they deposit, current behavior suggests a lasting shift in investment strategies.