Bitcoin's outflow/inflow ratio drops to 0.9, signaling accumulation and potential price reversal

Bitcoin's monthly outflow/inflow ratio has dropped to 0.9, indicating renewed long-term confidence and accumulation. This ratio, which measures the balance between coins moving out of and into exchanges, acts as a sentiment gauge. A reading below one indicates that investors are moving assets off exchanges, typically reflecting accumulation behavior. In contrast, values above 1.05 have previously coincided with increased sell pressure and local market tops. This latest drop mirrors the levels seen in December 2022, marking Bitcoin’s macro bottom near $15,500. That inflection point preceded a sustained multimonth rally, supporting the thesis that a low ratio often precedes a price reversal.

Despite aggressive short-side pressure on Binance derivatives, Bitcoin has remained in a tight range between $100,000 and $110,000. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) data remains negative, signaling consistent short-selling pressure from takers. Yet, the inability of the price to break lower suggests that this flow is being absorbed, implying accumulation. This structural resilience may be reinforced by onchain activity pointing toward institutional movement. Over 19,400 BTC worth roughly $2.11 billion was transferred from dormant wallets into institutional-grade addresses. These coins had previously remained untouched for three to seven years, underscoring the significance of the move. Such transfers are typically not impulsive and are often associated with strategic positioning, suggesting that large entities may step in as price holds steady amid visible short-term pressure.

The persistent sell flow, muted downside reaction, and large-scale accumulation strengthen the argument that Bitcoin is forming a bottom near $100,000. While short-term volatility may persist, the underlying bid, possibly institutional, could make a sharp correction below this level increasingly unlikely. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may be approaching a key demand-driven pivot with the potential to mark the beginning of its next bullish leg. This could signal a structural bottom forming, with the potential for a rally to new highs in the second half of 2025.