Bitcoin Options Expiry Nears With $14 Billion At Stake

Bitcoin is approaching a pivotal moment in its derivatives market, with over $14 billion in BTC options contracts set to expire on Friday, June 28. This event is drawing significant attention from traders who are closely monitoring the put-call ratio, which has recently surged to 0.72, up from just over 0.5 earlier in 2024. Traditionally, a high put-call ratio is seen as a bearish indicator, suggesting that traders are seeking downside protection. However, market participants and analysts are offering a more nuanced interpretation of this trend.

Much of the increased interest in put options is attributed to a strategic yield-focused approach known as cash-secured puts. This strategy involves writing put options, essentially selling protection against a BTC price decline, in exchange for premium income. Put writers maintain sufficient stablecoin reserves to purchase BTC if the option is exercised, using the downturn as an accumulation opportunity. This behavior suggests confidence in long-term bullish fundamentals rather than outright fear. “It’s a yield strategy, but also a way to accumulate Bitcoin at favorable prices,” said Lin Chen, Head of Business Development for Asia at Deribit. “This type of positioning is helping lift the put-call ratio without implying the market is structurally bearish.”

The upcoming expiry, centered on crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, will settle more than 141,000 BTC options contracts, representing over 40% of total open interest. This quarterly expiration event is historically a period of heightened volatility and is attracting attention for what it may signal about Bitcoin's short-term price trajectory. The market is navigating persistent ETF inflows, macroeconomic uncertainty, and intensifying institutional participation.

The numbers behind Friday’s expiry are substantial. The 141,271 expiring contracts are worth more than $14 billion at current prices, with one Deribit contract representing one BTC. Of the expiring positions, 81,994 contracts are calls, giving holders the right to buy BTC at a predetermined strike price, while the remainder are puts, offering protection in case of a downturn. Around 20% of the call options are in-the-money (ITM), meaning their strike prices are below Bitcoin’s current spot price. Traders holding these profitable positions face key decisions: lock in gains, hedge, or roll over to the next expiry cycle. Each of these choices can contribute to short-term volatility, particularly in an event as sizable as a quarterly settlement.

The max pain point, the price at which options buyers would suffer the most financial losses, is currently pegged at $102,000. This metric often serves as a gravitational pull as expiry approaches, as it represents a balance point where market makers face the least exposure. While not a predictive tool, the max pain level helps frame expectations, particularly in low-volume environments where derivatives can exert outsized influence on spot markets. Many call options are out-of-the-money and thus likely to expire worthless unless a dramatic price surge occurs.

One notable contract is the $300 call, which surprisingly holds the highest open interest among all call strikes. This reflects extreme bullish bets earlier in the year, likely made during speculative frenzies that now appear overly optimistic. Despite the looming expiry, recent market behavior suggests constrained price movement, with a slight bullish tilt. According to crypto market maker Wintermute, trader positioning indicates expectations of a tight $100,000 to $105,000 trading range in the final days before settlement. The firm reported a surge in straddle selling - a neutral-to-bearish volatility strategy - and short put activity centered on the $100,000 level, signaling limited fear of major downside. Meanwhile, selective call writing at $105,000 indicates resistance around that threshold.

“Flows skew neutral with some capped upside bets,” said Wintermute’s OTC desk in an email. “There’s also some longer-dated bullish interest, with call buying in the $108,000 to $112,000 range for July and September.” Implied volatility remains elevated across expiries, suggesting the market still expects significant price movement even if current positioning is more restrained.

This week’s options expiry arrives amid continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have collectively helped maintain Bitcoin’s price momentum. Even as macroeconomic headwinds persist, crypto derivatives markets are demonstrating greater sophistication and resilience. The use of structured options strategies, such as cash-secured puts and calendar spreads, underscores the evolution of crypto market participants from retail speculators to institutional-grade hedgers and yield-seekers.

With more than $30 billion in total BTC options open interest, Deribit continues to dominate the crypto options landscape, serving as a bellwether for market sentiment. As Friday’s expiry nears, all eyes will remain on key price levels and volatility patterns - particularly in the hours following the 08:00 UTC settlement window. As with previous quarterly expirations, the immediate aftermath of Friday’s event may feature increased spot market activity, sudden price swings, or even unexpected reversals as traders adjust their positions and liquidity rebalances.

If the majority of in-the-money calls are closed rather than rolled forward, Bitcoin could face temporary selling pressure. Conversely, if rollover interest is strong, it may help reinforce current support levels and even catalyze another leg higher in the weeks to come. Either way, the derivatives data suggest a disciplined, risk-managed market structure - far from the wild west perception that still lingers over crypto in some regulatory circles.