Bitcoin OG Whale Selling Pressure Eases Significantly, Shifts to Hodling Instead of Distribution

Bitcoin OG whale on-chain activity and selling pressure have declined sharply in the past month. Data from CryptoQuant indicates a significant drop in sending TXOs (STXOs) for holders with BTC untouched for over five years. This group had a unique opportunity to sell as institutional and government-linked capital flowed into the market.

The 90-day moving average of STXOs for OG whales peaked at around 2,300 BTC but has since fallen to roughly 1,000 BTC. This drop reflects a shift from active distribution to a holding strategy. The trend suggests these long-term holders are no longer aggressively selling their positions.

On-chain metrics reveal that the dominant behavior among OG whales is now to hold rather than sell. This could indicate confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value, even as prices fluctuate in the short term. The shift is noteworthy in the context of broader market dynamics and potential institutional demand.

Why Did OG Whale Selling Pressure Decline?

The recent decline in selling pressure is partly due to the market reaching key price levels. Bitcoin briefly topped $94,000 in early January 2026, a psychological milestone that could have encouraged whales to hold rather than sell. Additionally, macroeconomic factors such as the U.S. core CPI data contributed to a more stable environment for long-term holders.

Institutional and government-linked capital inflows also played a role in reducing the urgency to sell. As these capital sources entered the market, OG whales had fewer incentives to offload their holdings at cycle highs.

How Are Markets Reacting to Reduced Selling Pressure?

The broader market has responded positively to reduced selling pressure from OG whales. Bitcoin rose above $92,000 on January 13, 2026, following softer-than-expected U.S. core CPI data. The price movement coincided with reduced bearish signals from whale activity, reinforcing investor confidence.

Ethereum also saw modest gains, despite continued retail distribution. This suggests that whale behavior is influencing the market more than short-term retail trading patterns. The positive sentiment was further supported by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on monetary policy.

What Are Analysts Watching for Future Trends?

Analysts are closely monitoring the sustainability of the current trend. The 90-day STXO metric remains below its recent peak, indicating that holding behavior is likely to persist. However, any resurgence in selling activity could signal a shift in sentiment among OG whales.

The focus remains on whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward trajectory. Analysts are watching for further institutional inflows and macroeconomic developments that could impact long-term holder decisions. The broader market's reaction to potential regulatory changes and technological advancements will also be key factors.

Market participants are also tracking the behavior of other whale groups, particularly those in altcoins like Polygon (POL). Recent developments, including the acquisition of Coinme and Sequence, have increased POL's utility and regulatory compliance, attracting renewed whale interest.

The evolving landscape of institutional adoption and regulatory clarity will be crucial in determining whether OG whales continue to hold or return to active distribution. Analysts suggest that any large-scale sell-offs would likely coincide with bearish macroeconomic signals or regulatory uncertainty.