Bitcoin OG Selling Pressure Falls: A Catalyst for the Next Bull Run?

The Bitcoin market is at a pivotal inflection point. Over the past two years, on-chain data has revealed a dramatic shift in the behavior of early adopters and long-term holders-often referred to as "OGs"-whose selling pressure has plummeted by 73%, from a 90-day average of 3,000 BTC in 2024 to just 1,000 BTC by early 2026. This reduction in supply-side pressure, combined with a surge in institutional demand, has created a unique confluence of factors that could signal the dawn of a new bull cycle. But is this merely a temporary reprieve, or a structural shift that could propel Bitcoin to new heights?

On-Chain Behavioral Shifts: From Selling to Holding

The decline in OG selling pressure is not just a statistical anomaly-it reflects a fundamental change in how Bitcoin's earliest adopters view their holdings. According to on-chain metrics, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator, which measures the value of coins being moved after long periods of dormancy, has hit a historically low 0.53. This suggests that older, long-held coins are remaining untouched, while newer coins are being traded. Such behavior is typically observed during accumulation phases, where holders prioritize patience over profit-taking.

This shift is reinforced by the fact that Bitcoin's price has risen 18% from its Q4 2025 low of $80.6k to $95.5k by early 2026. The absence of aggressive selling from OGs has allowed incremental demand-particularly from institutions-to lift prices more efficiently. For context, during previous bear cycles (e.g., 2018 and 2022), OG selling pressure often spiked as panic-driven liquidation flooded the market. Today, that dynamic appears to be reversing.

Institutional Demand: A New Era of Legitimacy

While reduced selling pressure is a tailwind, the surge in institutional demand has been the more transformative force. By mid-2026, institutions had absorbed over 30,000 BTC, nearly matching the supply generated by mining activity. This demand is driven by a combination of regulatory clarity and macroeconomic tailwinds. According to analysis, the repeal of SAB 121 in the U.S., which allowed banks to treat digital assets as traditional assets, and the passage of the GENIUS Act have created a legal framework that legitimizes Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

Moreover, the rise of spot ETFs and digital asset treasuries has added nearly $44 billion in net demand for Bitcoin in late 2025. Corporate and pension fund allocations have further cemented Bitcoin's role as a hedge against inflation and a diversifier in institutional portfolios. By the end of 2025, Bitcoin's market dominance had stabilized above 60%, signaling a more mature market with reduced speculative volatility compared to previous cycles.

Historical Parallels: Halvings and Institutional Accumulation

Bitcoin's history offers a blueprint for understanding these dynamics. During the 2017 and 2020 halving events, institutional involvement and on-chain behavioral shifts mirrored today's trends. For example, after the 2016 halving, the percentage of Bitcoin held by long-term investors (holders with over three years of inactivity) increased by 73% within a year. Similarly, post-2020 halving, institutional clusters with holdings exceeding $10 million grew significantly, reducing circulating supply and stabilizing price volatility.

Today's environment appears to be a repeat of this pattern. The 2024 halving, combined with exhausted seller liquidity and rising global liquidity, has created conditions ripe for another price surge. According to analysis, institutional investors, now accounting for 60% of capital allocated through registered vehicles like ETFs, are reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a store of value.

Challenges and the Path Forward

Despite these positives, risks remain. Bitcoin's current price of $95.5k sits within a historically dense supply zone, where long-term holder cost bases cluster between $93k and $110k. Sustained demand is needed to clear this overhead supply and reestablish a bull trend. Additionally, maintaining price above key thresholds is critical to avoid a deeper capitulation phase.

Grayscale's analysis highlights that while halvings remain a foundational driver, the market is increasingly shaped by macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments. This suggests that Bitcoin's next bull run may not be purely algorithmic but rather a function of institutional adoption and global liquidity dynamics.

Conclusion: A Catalyst, Not a Guarantee

The decline in OG selling pressure and the rise in institutional demand are undeniably powerful catalysts. However, history teaches us that these factors alone are insufficient to guarantee a bull run. The key will be whether institutional demand can persistently absorb overhead supply and whether macroeconomic conditions (e.g., interest rates, global liquidity) align with Bitcoin's structural advantages.

For now, the data points to a market in transition-one where Bitcoin is no longer a speculative asset but a strategic reserve asset. If institutions continue to accumulate and OGs remain anchored, the next bull cycle could be more robust and less volatile than its predecessors.