Bitcoin's Odds of Closing Above $108,000 Drop to 31%

Bitcoin's price movement has been a topic of intense speculation, with many traders and analysts closely monitoring its trajectory as the week draws to a close. The question on everyone's mind is whether Bitcoin will close above $108,000 by July 4. According to the prediction market Myriad, the odds of this happening have shifted dramatically in the past 24 hours. Initially, the odds were around 50-50, but with Bitcoin now trading around $106,000, the odds have moved to 69% in favor of Bitcoin not closing above $108,000 by the deadline.

Technical indicators suggest that while Bitcoin has the potential to touch $108,000, closing above this threshold by the end of the week is a different story. The four-hour chart shows multiple attempts to breach the $107,500-$108,000 zone, each met with rejection. This repeated failure at this level suggests that there is significant resistance at this price point. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 17, significantly below the 25 threshold that confirms trend strength, indicating that Bitcoin is drifting rather than trending. This weak reading suggests that prices are likely to ping-pong between support and resistance rather than breaking through decisively.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows that markets are pushing for a bearish impulse, indicating downward momentum currently dominates shorter timeframes. This bearish pressure directly opposes the bullish break needed for the $108,000 target. However, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) offer a glimmer of hope. Using four-hour windows, the 50-period EMA sits above the 200-period EMA, maintaining the bullish golden cross structure. This alignment suggests the broader trend remains upward, even if short-term momentum wavers.

Another factor to consider is the weekend effect. July 4 falls on a Friday, with the deadline at 11:59 PM UTC—essentially Saturday morning for many global markets. Weekend trading typically sees reduced institutional participation, lower overall volume, and wider bid-ask spreads. These conditions make sustained breaks of key resistance levels more difficult, as there's simply less buying power to overwhelm sellers.

Based on the charts, Bitcoin does appear to have a high probability of at least touching $108,000 before the July 4 deadline. However, closing above $108,000 seems unlikely at the moment. Historical rejection rates, momentum divergence, time decay, volume requirements, and the weekend liquidity drain all suggest that the odds are against Bitcoin closing above this threshold. That said, anything can happen in the crypto market, and even minor catalysts could dramatically shift the outcome.

Key levels to watch include immediate resistance at $108,000, critical support at $105,000, and next resistance at $110,000 if the $108,000 threshold is broken. For prediction market participants, this setup suggests a binary outcome with an edge toward failure based purely on technical factors. However, because the deadline is so close, external catalysts will likely play a decisive role. Watch for increasing volume and ADX rising above 20 as early signals of a potential sustained breakout, but remain alert to news flow that could render technical analysis temporarily irrelevant.