Bitcoin's OBV Signals 57% Rally Potential Amid Bull Flag Pattern

Bitcoin’s on-balance volume (OBV) is currently signaling strong accumulation despite recent price consolidation, suggesting a potential major rally ahead. This trend is reminiscent of a historical OBV divergence in early 2025, which preceded a significant 57% price surge, reinforcing bullish sentiment for the current market setup.

Market analyst Cas Abbé highlights that a confirmed bull flag breakout could propel Bitcoin toward $130,000-$135,000 by Q3 2025, supported by institutional interest and technical indicators. This analysis is based on the current price consolidation between $102,000 and $112,000 since May, where the OBV metric has steadily increased, indicating that buying pressure is intensifying beneath the surface.

The OBV indicator aggregates trading volume based on price direction—adding volume on up days and subtracting on down days. Bitcoin’s OBV making higher highs while price remains range-bound suggests that buyers are quietly accumulating large positions, setting the stage for a potential breakout. This divergence between price and OBV is a classic indicator of accumulation, often preceding significant upward price movements.

Looking back to March and April 2025, Bitcoin exhibited a similar OBV divergence during a sideways trading phase between $76,000 and $84,000. During this period, OBV formed higher lows, signaling growing buying interest despite stagnant prices. This accumulation phase culminated in a powerful 57% rally, pushing Bitcoin above $110,000 by May 2025. This precedent lends credibility to current forecasts suggesting that Bitcoin could replicate this pattern and reach new highs in the near term.

Complementing the OBV signals, Bitcoin’s price action is forming a textbook bull flag pattern, a technical continuation formation that typically precedes strong upward moves. The initial surge from approximately $93,670 to nearly $112,000 in May established the “flagpole,” while the subsequent consolidation within a parallel downward channel forms the “flag.” This pattern indicates a potential breakout to the upside, with technical targets aligning closely with Cas Abbé’s projection of $130,000 to $135,000 by Q3 2025. Such a move would represent a continuation of Bitcoin’s bullish momentum following the consolidation phase.

Institutional flows and macroeconomic factors are reinforcing the technical setup. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz projects Bitcoin could reach between $130,000 and $150,000, driven by strong institutional demand and a weakening US dollar. Similarly, analyst Stockmoney Lizards anticipates even higher targets, eyeing $200,000 by year-end. These perspectives underscore a growing consensus among market experts that Bitcoin’s current accumulation phase, supported by rising OBV and bullish chart patterns, may soon translate into substantial price appreciation.

Bitcoin’s rising on-balance volume amid price consolidation signals robust accumulation, echoing a similar pattern that preceded a notable 57% rally earlier in 2025. The formation of a bull flag pattern further supports the likelihood of a breakout toward $130,000-$135,000 by Q3 2025. Coupled with strong institutional interest and favorable macroeconomic conditions, these technical and fundamental factors present a compelling case for Bitcoin’s continued upward trajectory in the medium term.