Is Bitcoin's November 2025 Crash the Beginning of a New Bull Market Bottom?

The Bitcoin crash of November 2025, which saw the cryptocurrency plummet from ~$120,000 to ~$82,000, marked one of the most violent corrections in recent memory. Triggered by a confluence of macroeconomic pressures-including the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, rising U.S. yields, and lingering trust issues post-FTX-the selloff wiped out ~$40,000 in value and triggered ~$2 billion in liquidations within 24 hours. Yet, beneath the chaos, on-chain data and macro-driven signals suggest a nuanced narrative: while the crash exposed vulnerabilities, it may also be laying the groundwork for a new bull market bottom.

On-Chain Behavior: Accumulation Amidst Chaos

Despite the carnage, on-chain metrics reveal a critical divergence between short-term panic and long-term conviction. Whale wallets accumulated ~6% more BTC since late October 2025, signaling continued interest in Bitcoin as a store of value. This contrasts sharply with the mass exodus from retail and leveraged positions, which exacerbated the downturn.

The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) score, a metric that compares Bitcoin's market value to its daily transaction volume, also offers insight. While specific values were not disclosed in recent analyses, the context implies the NVT score likely spiked during the crash as price fell without a proportional drop in transaction volume. Historically, elevated NVT scores can indicate overvaluation or weakening demand, but in this case, the persistence of transaction activity amid the selloff suggests Bitcoin's utility as a settlement layer remains intact.

Exchange outflows further underscore the market's fragility. In the immediate aftermath of the crash, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $903 million on November 20, the second-largest daily outflow since their January 2024 launch. However, by late November, inflows began to rebound. On November 25, spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $129 million, led by Fidelity's FBTC with $170.80 million in inflows-a sign that institutional confidence was slowly returning.

Macro-Driven Recovery Signals: ETFs and Institutional Adoption

The macroeconomic landscape, while still challenging, has begun to shift in Bitcoin's favor. The Federal Reserve's tightening cycle appears to be nearing its peak, and a weaker U.S. dollar-a traditional tailwind for Bitcoin-has started to reemerge. Meanwhile, ETF inflows, though volatile, are showing signs of stabilization.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), for instance, suffered a record $523 million outflow on November 19 as panic gripped the market. Yet, by the end of November, the average cost basis for ETF investors had settled at ~$89,600, with Bitcoin trading below this level-a potential catalyst for bargain hunting. Analysts argue that ETFs remain a critical on-ramp for institutional capital, and their continued existence-even amid outflows-demonstrates structural adoption is not collapsing.

Institutional adoption, meanwhile, continues to advance. Digital asset treasuries and corporate entities are increasingly allocating Bitcoin as part of long-term hedging strategies, a trend that predates the November crash. Vetle Lunde of K33, for example, has projected Bitcoin will bottom out at $84,000–$86,000 before resuming its bull market trajectory, citing historical drawdown patterns and resilient HODL behavior.

The Bull Case: A Healthy Correction or a Deeper Problem?

The November crash, while severe, does not necessarily signal a bear market. A 31% drawdown from October's peak aligns more with mid-cycle corrections than the deep selloffs of 2018 or 2022. Key indicators-moderate leverage levels, strong long-term holder retention, and intact institutional holdings-suggest the underlying bull market remains intact (https://mudrex.com/learn/why-the-crypto-market-is-crashing-november-2025/).

However, risks persist. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $88,000–$90,000 support zone, further declines could test the $80,000 level again. Macroeconomic headwinds, including Japan's surging yields and global liquidity constraints, remain unresolved (https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/11/20/bitcoin-falls-to-fresh-multimonth-low-as-macro-factors-fuel-continued-declines/).

Conclusion: A Bottom in the Making?

Bitcoin's November 2025 crash was a necessary reckoning for overleveraged positions and fragile liquidity conditions. Yet, the on-chain data-particularly whale accumulation and stable transaction volumes-combined with macro signals like ETF inflows and institutional adoption, suggest this correction may be clearing the path for a new bull market bottom.

For now, the market is in a delicate balancing act. If Bitcoin can stabilize above $84,000–$86,000 and attract renewed buying interest from both retail and institutional players, the stage will be set for a 2026 rebound. But until then, volatility and uncertainty will remain the watchwords.