Bitcoin News Today: Seven-Year Uptober Streak Ends as Trade Tensions and Market Fatigue Collide

Bitcoin is set to end October in negative territory for the first time in seven years, shattering the "Uptober" trend that has historically buoyed the cryptocurrency. The asset, which has seen six consecutive years of gains during the month since 2019, now faces a stark reversal as traders grapple with renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties, and signs of market fatigue, according to a Cointelegraph report. With just hours remaining in October 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) trades 3.35% lower on the month, according to analyst Jelle, who warned on X that a "strong green candle" on the final day would be needed to avoid the first red October in seven years, Cointelegraph reported.

The "Uptober" phenomenon, characterized by strong seasonal returns since 2013, has long been a hallmark of Bitcoin's performance. Historically, the month has delivered an average gain of 19.7% since 2013, with only three instances of losses in the past 12 years, according to a Yahoo Finance analysis. This year, however, the trend has faltered. On October 10 alone, BTC slumped to a five-month low amid a $19 billion liquidation event—the largest in crypto history—triggered by a sharp selloff, the Yahoo Finance report said. As of October 31, the asset is down 6% for the month, with Polymarket data showing a 52% probability of slipping below the psychological $100,000 threshold, Yahoo Finance noted.

Analysts point to a confluence of factors undermining Bitcoin's seasonal strength. Illia Otychenko of CEX.io attributed the downturn to "rising risk aversion tied to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions" and a market showing "bearish divergence" after hitting all-time highs, the Yahoo Finance analysis added. The geopolitical landscape took a turn for the better later in the month, however, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced "substantial" progress on a trade framework with China, averting 100% tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump, according to a Coinotag report. The news sparked a brief crypto rally, lifting Bitcoin 1.8% to $68,500, while Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) surged 3.6% and 3.7%, respectively, Coinotag reported.

Despite the late-month reprieve, October's losses are locked in, leaving traders divided on what November holds. Some fear a deeper correction, with Otychenko noting that the market's "exhaustion" suggests a pause or pullback is needed, the Yahoo Finance analysis observed. Others remain bullish, citing the potential for further U.S.-China trade progress and Federal Reserve rate cuts to reignite a bull market. Jeff Park of Bitwise predicted Bitcoin and gold could hit new all-time highs if the trade deal is finalized and the Fed eases monetary policy, Coinotag reported. Anthony Pompliano, another analyst, warned investors to "buckle up" for volatile price swings as macroeconomic catalysts align, Coinotag added.

The coming weeks will test Bitcoin's resilience. While the U.S.-China trade framework has eased immediate tariff risks, broader uncertainties-ranging from inflation trends to global supply chain dynamics-loom large. For now, the market remains in flux, with November poised to determine whether October's red close marks a cyclical low or a precursor to a more prolonged downturn.