Bitcoin News Today: XRP's $3 Surge: A Balancing Act Between Bitcoin's Optimism and On-Chain Caution

XRP surged above $3 in early July 2025, with traders closely monitoring its potential to reach $4, a development coinciding with Bitcoin's record highs. The altcoin's performance appears linked to broader market optimism, as Bitcoin's price consolidated near $108,767, having previously breached $110,000 during May's all-time high. Analysts attributed the bullish momentum to sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs, which saw $3.2 billion in weekly inflows in 2025, reflecting renewed confidence in crypto assets 99.3% of Bitcoin Supply in Profit, Analyst Suggests Correction^[4]. XRP's upward trajectory, however, faces scrutiny amid mixed signals from Bitcoin's on-chain metrics.

Bitcoin's market dynamics remain pivotal, with 99.3% of its supply in profit, a level historically preceding short-term corrections of 3% to 10% Bitcoin Profit Supply Hits 99.3%, Analysts Predict Correction^[3]. On-chain analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that such widespread profitability often triggers profit-taking, potentially pressuring Bitcoin and correlated assets like XRP. Meanwhile, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, a key indicator of speculative fervor, suggested Bitcoin's market value was 365-day moving average momentum, with short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs) exhibiting divergent behaviors Bitcoin MVRV Ratio & Realized Price | Bitcoin Is Data^[1].

Market sentiment indices further underscored the delicate balance between optimism and caution. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 63, indicating growing greed but not euphoria, a critical threshold for sustaining bullish trends 99.3% of Bitcoin Supply in Profit, Analyst Suggests Correction^[4]. Traders noted that Bitcoin's failure to break above $100,000-despite multiple attempts-had shifted attention to support levels near $98,220–$99,474, where consolidation could provide a foundation for renewed upside . XRP's performance, while less directly tied to these thresholds, benefited from the broader risk-on environment, with retail investors and institutions reallocating capital to crypto assets.

Institutional adoption of Bitcoin ETFs emerged as a stabilizing force, with net inflows dominating since June 2025. Santiment reported only one day of outflows in the past month, signaling sustained demand for regulated Bitcoin products . This trend indirectly bolstered XRP's appeal, as investors sought diversified exposure to the crypto sector. However, whale activity suggested caution: mid-sized holders offloaded 14,000 BTC since late June, while open interest in futures contracts declined by 5%, reflecting profit-taking amid uncertainty over Bitcoin's trajectory .

The interplay between macroeconomic factors and on-chain data shaped market expectations. The U.S. dollar's weakening (DXY below 99) and potential Fed rate cuts were viewed as tailwinds for Bitcoin and altcoins, while geopolitical tensions, such as China's retaliatory tariffs, introduced volatility. Analysts at Mosaic Asset Management noted that Bitcoin's performance could mirror gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, a dynamic that may extend to XRP if risk appetite remains resilient .

While XRP's $3–$4 range remains speculative, its correlation to Bitcoin's performance underscores the interconnectedness of the crypto market. Traders are advised to monitor Bitcoin's ability to reclaim $100,000 and the sustainability of ETF inflows, both of which could influence XRP's short-term direction. For now, the market appears in a transitional phase, balancing accumulation by retail participants with caution from institutional players.