Bitcoin News Today: Whales and Liquidity Fuel $450K Bitcoin Bull Case in 2025

Bitcoin Power Law Hints at $450K Peak in This Cycle

Bitcoin's price trajectory, supported by historical trends and whale activity on major exchanges, has sparked renewed speculation about the cryptocurrency's potential to reach a peak of $450,000 in the current market cycle. Analysts are closely examining historical September performance, on-chain data, and macroeconomic signals to gauge the likelihood of such a development. While the recent months have seen mixed outcomes for Bitcoin, the broader cycle and liquidity expansion suggest a strong upward bias in the future.

September has historically been a mixed month for Bitcoin, with several years showing significant price declines. For example, in 2017, the price of BTC dropped by 7.72%, and similar declines were recorded in 2019 and 2020. However, in 2023 and 2024, the trend reversed, with positive returns of 3.99% and 7.11% respectively. This shift has led some analysts to question whether the negative historical pattern will continue or if September is becoming a stronger month for Bitcoin [1].

On-chain data from Binance has also revealed a shift in market dynamics, particularly in 2024 and 2025. The average size of Bitcoin deposits on the exchange increased from 0.8 BTC to 13.5 BTC per transaction, signaling a rise in whale activity. This trend suggests that large institutional and professional traders are increasingly dominating the market, which may indicate a more stable and bullish environment for Bitcoin. Analysts have interpreted this as a sign that the market is moving away from retail-driven volatility and toward more strategic positioning by larger participants [1].

Further reinforcing the bullish narrative is the broader market cycle analysis. Bitcoin's historical performance has shown sharp upward trends followed by corrections, with each cycle becoming progressively longer and flatter. The current phase is no exception. The extended duration of the bull run has been attributed to the increasing adoption of spot ETFs and the gradual movement of capital into altcoins, which has slowed Bitcoin's short-term momentum. However, this trend has also created a more sustainable accumulation phase, which could lead to a larger breakout in the coming months [1].

Macro-level indicators are also aligning with the bullish case. Recent data shows global M2 liquidity reaching record highs, a factor historically linked to strong performance in risk assets like Bitcoin. Market analysts suggest that the current divergence between Bitcoin’s price and the liquidity curve indicates a potential for significant upward movement. If Bitcoin follows its historical pattern, it could soon break through key resistance levels between $115,000 and $120,000, setting the stage for a larger bullish phase [2].

Looking ahead, analysts anticipate that a potential rate cut in September 2025 and the approval of ETFs for altcoins in October could further support Bitcoin’s rally. These developments, combined with the ongoing influx of capital into the market and the increasing influence of large holders, suggest that the next major bull run may begin in late 2025. While the path forward remains subject to market conditions and external factors, the convergence of historical patterns, whale activity, and macroeconomic signals supports the view that Bitcoin’s price could reach $450,000 in this cycle [1].

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Price History Signals Bear Trap Ahead, Here's When Bull Rally Will Return (https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/08/30/bitcoin-price-history-signals-bear-trap-ahead-heres-when-bull-rally-will-return/)

[2] Bitcoin Price to USDT Could Surge as Global Liquidity Hits Record High (https://thetradable.com/crypto/bitcoin-price-to-usdt-could-surge-as-global-liquidity-hits-record-high-ig--a)