Bitcoin News Today: Whales and ETFs Fuel Bitcoin's $106K Ascent Amid Exchange Inflow Drought

Bitcoin's trajectory toward a potential all-time high in late 2025 is gaining momentum as on-chain data reveals a sharp decline in exchange inflows and increased accumulation by large holders. According to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, BTC inflows to major exchanges have plummeted to decade lows, mirroring levels observed in 2014 when Bitcoin traded below $1,000. This trend is accompanied by a notable shift in market dynamics: while average daily spot trading volume fell by 10% in Q2 2025 to $40 billion, derivatives trading remains resilient, with derivatives volume at $20.2 trillion. Analysts attribute this to institutional capital flows and ETF-driven demand, which have partially offset weak liquidity in altcoins.

Whale activity has emerged as a critical driver of bullish sentiment. Large holders-wallets controlling 10,000 BTC or more-have accumulated over 53,600 BTC since late March 2025, despite market volatility. These whales now control 67.77% of Bitcoin's total supply, a figure that has risen steadily as smaller wallets offloaded holdings during price surges. On-chain metrics such as the Exchange Flow Multiple (a 40% decline from 1.0x to 0.6x over two weeks) and reduced miner outflows suggest exhausted short-term sellers and growing long-term confidence. Notably, over $3.2 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in late April 2025, further signaling institutional validation of the asset.

The divergence between price action and network metrics has sparked optimism among market participants. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which tracks long-term holder activity, shows no panic among seasoned investors, while the Difference Liquidity indicator has entered a "demand generation" zone historically associated with sustained accumulation. Analysts like Axel Adler Jr. highlight that Bitcoin's 7-day average exchange inflows have dropped by 64% since November 2024, creating a "consolidation zone" that could precede a sharp price rally. Adler notes that the market has absorbed profit-taking waves post-$100,000, with buyers comfortably holding current price levels.

Expert forecasts align with these on-chain signals. Matrixport and Willy Woo predict a potential $106,000 breakout, citing extreme greed sentiment and whale accumulation. Historical parallels to the 2022 Terra/LUNA crash and 2022 FTX implosion suggest that if stablecoin inflows to exchanges match those periods, Bitcoin could experience a rapid upward move. Meanwhile, South Korean investors-45.4% of whom anticipate Bitcoin outperforming gold in six months-add regional confidence to the narrative.

However, caution persists. While whale accumulation typically drives price increases, short-term holders remain vulnerable to retracements. Bitcoin's current range between $83,000 and $84,000 is critical; a break above $88,000 could reignite bullish momentum, while a drop to $80,000 may trigger further corrections. Market observers also warn of potential regulatory risks, particularly as celebrity-backed tokens like $TRUMP and $YZY highlight the sector's susceptibility to hype-driven volatility.