Bitcoin News Today: Whale Buys vs. ETF Selloff: Bitcoin's Path Hangs in Balance

Bitcoin's recent volatility has sparked a divergence in market sentiment, with institutional outflows and whale accumulation creating a complex landscape for investors. After dipping below $100,000 last week, Bitcoin rebounded to $106,541 on Monday as the U.S. Senate took steps to end the historic government shutdown according to market analysis. The move followed a 15.8% decline from its October record high of $126,272.76, yet technical indicators suggest a potential stabilization phase. Bitcoin's ability to hold above $105,000-a critical support level-has drawn attention, with analysts noting that a sustained close above $106,000 could propel the asset toward $110,000.

The market's mixed signals are underscored by conflicting trends in investor behavior. While Bitcoin ETFs experienced $1.7 billion in outflows over the past week, large whale activity has softened the price impact. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that "Great Whales" (holding over 10,000 BTC) doubled their holdings, accumulating over 36,000 BTC despite ETF-driven turbulence. This accumulation has helped anchor Bitcoin above $100,000, preserving a structurally bullish foundation. Conversely, mid-sized investors reduced their accumulation by nearly half during the same period according to the same analysis.

Retail and institutional sentiment, however, appear increasingly at odds. Santiment's analysis highlights a "cautionary signal" as small retail investors aggressively buy dips while whales sell. Since October 12, whales holding 10–10,000 BTC have sold approximately 32,500 Bitcoin, contrasting with retail buying that pushed the price back to $103,780. This divergence echoes historical patterns where whale activity often dictates price direction according to market analysis. Meanwhile, older "OG" whales-holders of seven-year-old Bitcoin-have intensified selling, with some dumping over 1,000 BTC hourly. Analysts warn this could threaten a potential drop to $89,600.

Technical indicators offer a cautiously optimistic outlook. Bitcoin's RSI and MACD suggest fading bearish momentum, with the RSI hovering near neutral levels and MACD lines converging according to technical analysis. A break above $106,453 could target the 50-day EMA at $110,241, while a breakdown below $100,353 risks further declines according to the same analysis. On-chain data also shows improved liquidity, with BTC/USD spreads narrowing to $6–8 from $12–15 during the shutdown peak according to data analysis.

Market participants are closely watching regulatory developments as well. The end of the government shutdown has revived pending ETF approvals and crypto rulemaking, potentially improving long-term clarity. Grayscale's recent IPO filing further underscores growing institutional interest, though its impact on Bitcoin's price remains uncertain according to market forecasts.

As the market navigates these crosscurrents, the interplay between whale accumulation, ETF outflows, and macroeconomic factors will likely determine Bitcoin's next move. With the 50-day EMA acting as a psychological hurdle, investors are advised to monitor volume and funding rates for signs of sustained momentum according to technical analysis.