Bitcoin News Today: VanEck: Bitcoin's Fixed Supply and Institutional Adoption Could Overtake Gold's $14 Trillion Store of Value Role

VanEck Executive: Bitcoin's Market Cap Could Reach Half of Gold's After Next Halving, with a Potential Price of Around $644,000

VanEck, a leading asset manager, has issued a bold forecast for Bitcoin, suggesting the cryptocurrency could capture half of gold's current market capitalization following the next halving event. This would translate to a valuation of approximately $7 trillion for Bitcoin, with individual prices potentially reaching $644,000 per coin, according to the firm's analysisVanEck CEO Boldly Predicts Bitcoin At $300K Per Coin, Reaching Half Of Gold's Market Cap In The Face Of Growing Demand^[1]. The prediction hinges on Bitcoin's ability to displace gold as a preferred store of value, particularly as institutional adoption and regulatory clarity drive broader acceptance.

The firm's head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, highlighted that Bitcoin's scarcity-capped at 21 million coins-and its growing role as a hedge against inflation position it to outcompete gold. "Bitcoin's unique attributes, such as its decentralized nature and programmability, make it a compelling alternative to gold," Sigel statedVanEck CEO Boldly Predicts Bitcoin At $300K Per Coin, Reaching …^[2]. The analysis also cited historical trends, noting that gold's market cap currently stands at around $14 trillion, with Bitcoin's share projected to climb from its current ~4% to 50% if adoption accelerates as anticipated.

Supporting this outlook, VanEck pointed to surging demand for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and increased participation from traditional financial institutions. Data from CoinGecko showed Bitcoin hitting a record above $89,000 in early 2025, while BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, reported $1.12 billion in inflows during October 2024VanEck Mid-July 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck^[3]. These flows reflect growing institutional confidence, with JPMorgan analysts forecasting continued ETF demand through 2025VanEck CEO Boldly Predicts Bitcoin At $300K Per Coin, Reaching Half Of Gold's Market Cap In The Face Of Growing Demand^[1]. Additionally, the firm emphasized Bitcoin's negative correlation with the U.S. dollar, a relationship that has persisted despite recent macroeconomic volatility.

Critics, however, caution that Bitcoin's volatility and energy consumption remain significant hurdles. The next halving, scheduled for 2028, is expected to reduce the block reward from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC, potentially driving scarcity-driven price increases. Yet, regulatory uncertainty and competition from alternative assets could temper demand. VanEck acknowledged these risks but argued that Bitcoin's structural advantages-such as its fixed supply and borderless utility-will ultimately outweigh them.

The firm's forecast aligns with broader market optimism. Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink have both positioned Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class, with Fink noting its potential to enhance portfolio diversificationVanEck CEO Boldly Predicts Bitcoin At $300K Per Coin, Reaching Half Of Gold's Market Cap In The Face Of Growing Demand^[1]. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance metric, which tracks its share of the total crypto market, has remained above 60% in 2025, despite surges in altcoin pricesVanEck Mid-July 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck^[3]. This resilience underscores Bitcoin's role as the primary reserve asset in the crypto ecosystem.

VanEck's prediction also factors in macroeconomic tailwinds. The U.S. Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy and the proliferation of Bitcoin-based financial products-such as futures and options-have created a fertile environment for adoption. Sigel added that Bitcoin's integration into corporate treasuries, exemplified by firms like MicroStrategy and Tesla, could further normalize its use as a long-term store of valueVanEck CEO Boldly Predicts Bitcoin At $300K Per Coin, Reaching …^[2].

While the $644,000 target appears ambitious, VanEck's analysis is grounded in historical precedent. Bitcoin has historically surged post-halving events, with prices rising by 500% to 800% in prior cycles. The firm's model assumes a continuation of this trend, with ETF inflows and institutional demand offsetting supply-side constraints. However, it warns that a failure to achieve regulatory clarity or a sudden macroeconomic downturn could delay or derail the trajectory.