Bitcoin News Today: Tuur Demeester predicts Bitcoin could hit $500,000 in mid-cycle bull run

Tuur Demeester, a seasoned Bitcoin economist and co-author of a recent report from Adamant Research, has made a bold forecast: Bitcoin is in the "mid-cycle" of what could become one of the most significant bull runs in its history, with potential price targets exceeding $500,000 [1]. The report, titled How to Position for the Bitcoin Boom, argues that current market conditions reflect strong conviction among long-term holders and a healthy, mid-cycle optimism rather than late-stage euphoria [1].

According to the report, several on-chain metrics support this thesis. The HODLer Net Position Change remains stable, with no signs of large-scale selling activity typical of market peaks. Specifically, there have been no days in 2025 where over 100,000 coins were moved net by long-term holders, a pattern commonly associated with panic selling [1]. Additionally, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric indicates that 50–70% of Bitcoin's supply is in unrealized profit, consistent with a maturing bull phase [1].

Demeester and Adamant Research project a 4–10x price appreciation from current levels, a trajectory that would see Bitcoin reach multi-hundred thousand dollar levels in the years ahead. This potential growth is attributed to deepening institutional adoption, macroeconomic tailwinds, and a growing perception of Bitcoin as a hedge against systemic risks such as inflation and fiscal deficits [1].

The report also addresses potential headwinds, such as major hacks or macroeconomic downturns. However, the authors argue that the likelihood of such events derailing the bull market is low. Past incidents, including the 2016 Bitfinex hack and the 2025 Mt. Gox liquidation of 80,000 BTC, had minimal long-term impact on Bitcoin’s price [1]. Furthermore, the U.S. administration’s increasingly pro-Bitcoin stance—highlighted by policies such as the National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the rapid adoption of spot ETFs—has created a favorable regulatory environment [1].

Tuur Demeester also makes a clear distinction between Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies. Unlike in 2015, when the report suggested holding a small altcoin allocation, the 2025 iteration advises against it. Demeester now emphasizes Bitcoin's unique value proposition as the base layer of the financial internet, with no meaningful competition in the long-term store-of-value category [1].

On the topic of portfolio allocation, the report suggests that investors should consider a 5% Bitcoin allocation as insurance against systemic risk, while 10% serves as a speculative hedge. For those with a high conviction in Bitcoin’s future, allocations of 20–50% are deemed appropriate [1].

Custody solutions are also highlighted, with multi-signature wallets recommended as the optimal balance between security and usability, particularly for new adopters [1].

As of August 10, 2025, Bitcoin was ranked 1 in market capitalization, with a price of $118,408.48 and a 1.01% increase over the past 24 hours. The total crypto market stood at $3.95 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance at 59.66% [1].

The report concludes that the current phase is not a peak but rather a mid-cycle opportunity, with the potential for historic institutional adoption and sustained price appreciation setting the stage for Bitcoin’s next chapter in global finance [1].

Source: [1] Bitcoin’s ‘mid-cycle strength’: Tuur Demeester predicts $500k target and historic institutional bull run (https://cryptoslate.com/bitcoins-mid-cycle-strength-tuur-demeester-predicts-500k-target/)