Bitcoin News Today: Tug-of-War for Bitcoin: DWF's Buy Signal in Volatile Climate

DWF Labs, a prominent crypto asset management firm, has recently added Bitcoin to its portfolio, signaling cautious optimism amid a turbulent market environment. The move comes as Bitcoin trades near $84,000, having shed over 30% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Despite the sharp correction, DWF Labs' partner sees value in the current price level, particularly as key indicators suggest potential stabilization and long-term institutional interest.

The U.S. market's role in Bitcoin's recent underperformance is evident in the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which has remained negative for 21 consecutive days, hitting -0.0989% on November 20. This metric, which measures the price gap between Coinbase and the global average, reflects weak demand and selling pressure in the U.S., a critical hub for institutional activity. A negative premium typically signals capital outflows, reduced risk appetite, and hedging behavior among investors. The index's widening divergence to -0.15% in late November-the widest since Q1 2025-further underscores the U.S. market's struggles.

Compounding the downward pressure, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen record outflows in November, with $3.79 billion in net redemptions. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest ETF, alone faced a $523 million single-day withdrawal as Bitcoin dipped below $90,000. These outflows contrast with earlier 2025 inflows that fueled a rally driven by macroeconomic tailwinds and ETF-driven speculation. However, some analysts argue that the selloff has created strategic entry points for institutions. Harvard University, for instance, increased its IBIT holdings by 250% quarter-on-quarter, while Japan's Metaplanet allocated ¥15 billion ($100+ million) for Bitcoin purchases.

Despite the near-term pain, bullish narratives persist. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established in March 2025, now holds an estimated 198,000 BTC, treating the asset as a national reserve. Meanwhile, corporate treasuries and hedge funds are viewed as potential stabilizing forces, with some experts forecasting a rebound to $100,000–$150,000 by year-end. Standard Chartered and Bitwise Asset Management have maintained $200,000 targets for 2025, citing structural demand and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts.

Yet bearish risks loom. A Bloomberg analyst warned that Bitcoin could retrace to $10,000 if 2018's collapse pattern repeats, citing macroeconomic fragility and expanding token supply. Glassnode data also showed $4 billion in realized Bitcoin losses on November 21-the highest since March 2023-raising concerns about capitulation. Derivatives data highlights vulnerability, with open interest in BTC futures falling 35% from October's $94 billion peak. Critical support levels at $81,000–$75,000 could trigger further liquidations if breached.

DWF Labs' decision to buy Bitcoin underscores a broader theme: institutional resilience amid volatility. While short-term fundamentals remain fragile, long-term holders and strategic accumulators continue to position for a post-correction rally. As one market observer noted, "The current environment is a tug-of-war between macro-driven bearishness and institutional conviction. Bitcoin's path higher won't be linear, but the underlying demand isn't gone." According to the forecast.