Bitcoin News Today: Trump Whale's $430M Short: Bets on Fed Policy Shift and Geopolitical Swings

A high-profile cryptocurrency whale linked to Donald Trump has raised its short position in Bitcoin and Ethereum to $430 million, signaling anticipation of market volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and the Trump-Xi summit in South Korea. The trader, dubbed an "OG 'Insider' Whale," has amplified its bearish bet to $227 million on Bitcoin and extended similar positions in Ethereum, according to a Yahoo Finance report. This move comes amid a broader market environment where leveraged positions and macroeconomic catalysts are amplifying risks for crypto assets.

The Fed's anticipated 25-basis-point rate cut, expected with 98% probability on prediction markets according to a Bitcoinist article, has already spurred a surge in Bitcoin's open interest to $37.63 billion, reflecting heightened speculative activity, according to a Yahoo Finance analysis. Analysts argue that ending quantitative tightening (QT)—which would signal greater inflation tolerance—could prove a more significant tailwind for Bitcoin than the rate cut itself, according to a Coinotag analysis. "The end of QT would imply a shift toward easier monetary policy, historically supporting crypto as an inflation hedge," said Dr. Andre Dragosh, head of research at Bitwise.

Meanwhile, stablecoin flows suggest growing confidence in the crypto market. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), a metric tracking stablecoin liquidity relative to Bitcoin's market cap, is near cycle lows, indicating sidelined capital ready to re-enter the market, a dynamic noted by Bitcoinist. This dynamic, combined with the Fed's dovish stance, has fueled optimism about a potential "Uptober" rally. "Lower rates reduce the cost of capital, driving liquidity toward risk assets like Bitcoin," said Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget.

However, the whale's timing has drawn scrutiny. Critics note that its positions often align with major geopolitical or macroeconomic events, such as Trump's recent call for 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, which triggered a $19 billion market wipeout in late October, a pattern first highlighted by the Yahoo Finance report. Supporters, meanwhile, argue the trader's expertise in reading market sentiment and structure justifies its strategy.

The political landscape adds further complexity. The Trump-Xi meeting on October 30 could either boost risk appetite with trade deal optimism or trigger a sell-off if new tariffs are announced, according to a Coinotag preview. Such outcomes could influence Bitcoin's price action, which currently trades near $115,000 after a recent rebound from a $102,000 low reported by Yahoo Finance.

Institutional demand for crypto is also on the rise. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded $149 million and $133 million in inflows, respectively, last week, according to a Crypto.news report, while crypto funds attracted $921 million in total inflows as investors position for macro-driven moves.

As the Fed's decision looms, market participants remain cautious. "Investors have likely priced in the rate cut, but the real catalyst will be whether QT ends," said Jonathan Rose of BlockTrust IRA in a Decrypt article. The coming days will test whether the crypto market can sustain its recent momentum amid overlapping macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.