Bitcoin News Today: Traders Bet Big on Bitcoin's Downturn Ahead of $11.3B Options Expiry

Bitcoin options with a combined notional value of approximately $11.34 billion are set to expire on August 27 at 4 PM Beijing time, with the expiry involving 102,000 BTC in contracts. The event, observed on the Deribit platform — the largest options exchange for cryptocurrencies — features a put/call ratio of 0.79, reflecting a strong demand for put options, or downside protection [1]. The contracts are distributed across a range of strike prices, with the "max pain" level estimated at $116,000 for Bitcoin, a price point where the greatest number of open contracts may expire worthless [2].

Open interest in Bitcoin options is concentrated in put contracts with strike prices between $108,000 and $112,000. This aligns with the current market price, indicating that traders are hedging against potential declines. Meanwhile, call options with strike prices above $120,000 represent a more bullish outlook, although they remain less liquid compared to the puts [1]. Deribit’s analysis notes that the expiry highlights a persistent demand for downside insurance in Bitcoin, contrasting with the more balanced positioning observed in ether options [2].

The notional value of the expiring Bitcoin options, at $11.34 billion, is a significant figure in the context of the growing derivatives market. Since 2020, options trading activity has increased substantially, with monthly and quarterly expiries becoming major price-influencing events. The theory of "max pain" — the idea that asset prices tend to gravitate toward levels where the most contracts expire worthless — remains a contested concept among traders. Nonetheless, the $116,000 level has become a focal point for those who follow this theory [1].

Market observers suggest that the outcome of the August 27 expiry may influence the tone for the rest of September. Deribit analysts noted that the expiry coincides with broader macroeconomic events, including key U.S. economic data releases, which could further impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. The firm also emphasized that the expiry is occurring in a context where traders are showing caution ahead of potential volatility [2]. Additionally, the expiry comes on the heels of a recent pullback in Bitcoin’s price, which briefly dipped below $110,000 and touched $108,600 intraday on August 26, reinforcing the significance of the $110,000 level as a key support [2].

The expiry of these large-volume options could create increased price pressure, particularly as market participants adjust their positions ahead of the settlement date. The put-heavy positioning near $110,000 to $115,000 suggests a defensive strategy among traders, while the dominance of call options at higher strike prices reflects optimism about Bitcoin’s potential to rise further. The outcome of the event will depend on a combination of factors, including macroeconomic developments and the behavior of institutional participants who have been historically observed to buy dips selectively in previous market cycles [2].

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[1] Massive $14.6B Bitcoin and Ether Options Expiry Shows Bias for Bitcoin Protection (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/08/26/massive-usd14-6b-btc-and-eth-options-expiry-shows-bias-for-bitcoin-protection)

[2] Will Bitcoin's $12B Options expiry impact September's price action (https://ambcrypto.com/will-bitcoins-12b-options-expiry-shape-septembers-price-action)

[3] Massive $14.6B Bitcoin and Ether Options Expiry Shows Bias (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/massive-14-6b-bitcoin-ether-062629421.html)