Bitcoin News Today: Structural Shifts Elongate Bitcoin Bull Cycle, 2026 Peak Looms

Bitcoin's bull market shows no signs of peaking, with all 30 major cycle indicators remaining untriggered as of October 2025, according to on-chain analytics platforms and market experts. This development has reignited debates about the cryptocurrency's potential trajectory, with some analysts suggesting the current rally could extend into early 2026.

The CoinGlass Bull Market Peak Indicator tracker, which monitors metrics like the Bitcoin Bubble Index, Puell Multiple, and Altcoin Season Index, reported zero triggers as of October 22. Typically, at least half of these indicators hitting 100% historically signaled an approaching market top. However, Bitcoin's dominance remains high at 59.1%, and metrics such as the MVRV Z-Score (1.94) and Puell Multiple (1.11) suggest the market is in a stable growth phase rather than a speculative frenzy, according to data from Coinfomania. On-chain data also reveals that long-term holders control 15.13 million BTC, with selling pressure below critical thresholds, reinforcing the idea that institutional and veteran investors remain bullish, Coinfomania notes.

Market sentiment oscillates between extremes, as reflected in the Alternative Fear & Greed Index, which swung from "extreme greed" to "fear" within weeks in late 2025, according to a Lookonchain feed. Despite this volatility, Bitcoin's price action has shown resilience, rebounding to $107,983 after exceeding $120,000 in 2025. Technical analysts note weakening momentum via the MACD indicator, but this is seen as a potential short-term correction rather than a bearish reversal, the Lookonchain post adds.

Institutional demand further underpins the bull case. Bitcoin ETFs recorded $20.3 million in net inflows on October 23, led by BlackRock's IBIT, while on-chain liquidity metrics indicate strong accumulation by corporate treasuries and funds, according to a Crypto.News report. Meanwhile, exchange reserves have dropped to multi-year lows, and miner selling pressure has eased post-halving, suggesting a healthier ecosystem, as outlined in a NewsBTC update.

Prominent analysts argue structural shifts are elongating the bull cycle. The Bull Theory posits that Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle has stretched to five years due to extended macroeconomic trends, including prolonged debt monetization and slower liquidity flows, a NewsBTC update suggests. This model points to a potential peak in Q2 2026, while Michaël van de Poppe of Coinedition highlights undervalued altcoins and a lack of retail euphoria as signs the market is still in an early phase in a Coinedition interview.

Geopolitical and macroeconomic factors add layers of complexity. The U.S.-China trade framework agreed in late October boosted risk assets, sending Bitcoin to $113,367 and lifting the crypto market cap to $3.83 trillion, according to a Coinpedia report. However, investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed's October 29 policy meeting, with markets pricing in a 96.2% chance of a 375–400 basis point rate cut, according to Yahoo Finance.

With no clear peak signals and institutional confidence intact, the stage is set for Bitcoin to test new highs—though volatility from ETF flows, options expiries, and macro events could create turbulence. As one analyst put it: "We're still at the bottom of this entire indicator. There's way more upside to come." Van de Poppe added.

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