Bitcoin News Today: Structural Factors Fuel Bitcoin's Bullish Trajectory Amid Regulatory Turbulence

Bitcoin faces a pivotal October with a 50% probability of reaching $140,000 by month-end, according to simulations by economist Timothy Peterson analyzing a decade of historical dataDaily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $140K Target, Ethereum Tests Critical $4,800 Resistance^[1]. This projection aligns with Bitcoin's historical performance in October, which has averaged 20.75% gains since 2013, making it the second-best-performing month for the asset. The bullish case is underpinned by $3.5 billion in weekly institutional inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), bringing total assets under management to $195.2 billionBitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Prices Still on Track For …^[2]. Exchange-held Bitcoin reserves have also fallen to a five-year low of 2.38 million BTC, indicating sustained accumulation by long-term holdersBitcoin Price Prediction 2025-2026 And Beyond^[3].

Institutional adoption continues to accelerate, with BlackRock's IBIT dominating the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market. IBIT's assets under management recently surpassed $90 billionBitcoin Price Prediction 2025, 2026 – 2030: How High Will BTC …^[4], reflecting growing confidence in regulated crypto investment vehicles. Meanwhile, exchange inflows into self-custody and staking have further tightened Bitcoin's supply dynamics. XWIN Research noted that Bitcoin's 130% rise since 2022 and declining exchange reserves suggest a narrowing "liquidity lag," a metric historically correlated with bullish momentumDaily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $140K Target, Ethereum Tests Critical $4,800 Resistance^[5].

Ethereum, however, faces challenges breaking through its $4,800 resistance level. Despite mixed signals from derivatives markets, Ethereum's exchange reserves have dropped to 16.1 million ETH, a 25% decline since 2022Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025-2026 And Beyond^[6]. Technical indicators show bearish divergence on four-hour charts, with a critical support zone around $4,400. If Ethereum fails to defend this level, further corrections to $4,250–$4,100 are likelyDaily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $140K Target, Ethereum Tests Critical $4,800 Resistance^[7].

Geopolitical and regulatory developments are also shaping market dynamics. Dubai's Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority enforced measures against 19 non-compliant businesses while granting licenses to compliant operators like BitGoDaily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $140K Target, Ethereum Tests Critical $4,800 Resistance^[8]. Meanwhile, the European Union's potential penalties against the A7A5 stablecoin-backed by the Russian ruble-led to a 250% surge in its market cap in a single day, illustrating how regulatory pressure can paradoxically drive adoptionDaily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Eyes $140K Target, Ethereum Tests Critical $4,800 Resistance^[9].

The Federal Reserve's dovish pivot in September, cutting rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, has further fueled risk-on sentimentBitcoin Price Prediction 2025, 2026 – 2030: How High Will BTC …^[10]. Markets are pricing in a high probability of an additional 25-basis-point cut at the October FOMC meeting, with Bitcoin surging past $125,700 in early October amid heightened expectations of liquidity injectionsOctober Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise, Bitcoin Surges^[11]. Analysts at MEXC and VALR note that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs and bond yields, typically boosting demand for risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoinsFed Cuts Rates for the First Time in 2025 - What it …^[12].

While the $140,000 target remains speculative, structural factors-including ETF-driven demand, declining exchange liquidity, and macroeconomic tailwinds-suggest Bitcoin's trajectory remains bullish. However, risks persist, including potential ETF outflows, macro shocks, and regulatory uncertainty. As the October FOMC meeting approaches, markets will closely watch for signals on the pace of rate cuts and inflation control, which could either validate or disrupt the current rallyOctober Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise, Bitcoin Surges^[13].