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The crypto market is navigating a pivotal phase as the ERC-20 stablecoin supply on the
network reaches an unprecedented $185 billion, signaling sustained bullish momentum despite recent price corrections . This record-level liquidity, tracked by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, underscores growing institutional and retail capital inflows into the crypto ecosystem, like global M2 money supply. Analysts argue that stablecoin supply has emerged as a more reliable real-time gauge for Bitcoin's (BTC) price trajectory, during both the 2021 bull run and the 2024–2025 recovery.The shift in focus from M2 to stablecoin issuance reflects broader structural changes in crypto markets. While global liquidity measures have seen growth slow in 2025, stablecoin supply has maintained its upward trajectory, driven by cross-chain adoption and institutional demand. For instance,
in November 2025, the highest on record, as traders converted volatile assets into stablecoins during market downturns. This "dry powder" accumulation—where stablecoins act as a liquidity buffer—suggests a strategic wait for price stabilization or corrections to deploy capital . Such dynamics are reinforced by the declining reserves of and Ethereum on exchanges, indicating a shift from holding crypto to hoarding stablecoin liquidity .
Experts emphasize that stablecoin supply growth is not merely a liquidity metric but a reflection of systemic adoption. XWIN Research Japan, a contributor to CryptoQuant,
, decentralized finance (DeFi), and derivatives markets, reacting faster than traditional liquidity metrics to investor flows. The correlation between stablecoin expansion and BTC's performance—observed in prior cycles—suggests that the current $185 billion ERC-20 supply could set the stage for renewed bullish momentum.However, the reliance on stablecoin liquidity is not without risks. High reserves on exchanges may signal caution among traders, while regulatory scrutiny or peg instability could disrupt market dynamics. Yet, for now, the crypto sector appears to be in a phase of "armed patience," with stablecoins acting as a compressed spring poised to drive the next major price move
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