Bitcoin News Today: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Transform BTC into Structural Asset, Fueling $3B Inflows

Bitcoin's price surge has ignited renewed optimism in the crypto market, with on-chain metrics and macroeconomic indicators reinforcing the narrative of a sustained bull cycle. On October 3, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) traded above $124,000, nearing its previous all-time high of $124,000 set in mid-August, driven by a confluence of institutional adoption, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and technical catalysts Bitcoin Targets $125K as Macro Conditions and MVRV Model Signal Strong Breakout^[1]. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) model, a key on-chain metric, has confirmed that Bitcoin has broken through critical resistance levels, with immediate targets at $125,000 and medium-term projections reaching $138,800 Bitcoin Targets $125K as Macro Conditions and MVRV Model Signal Strong Breakout^[1]. This model, which measures the deviation of market value from realized value (the total cost basis of all Bitcoin held on-chain), indicates that the network is experiencing significant profit-taking, a common precursor to sustained bullish momentum Bitcoin Targets $125K as Macro Conditions and MVRV Model Signal Strong Breakout^[1].

Macroeconomic tailwinds are amplifying the upward trajectory. The U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts, now priced at 40% by January 2026 (up from 18% in mid-August), have bolstered demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin Bitcoin Targets $125K as Macro Conditions and MVRV Model Signal Strong Breakout^[1]. Additionally, Bitcoin's correlation with gold has strengthened, as both assets gained 16% in six weeks amid investor flight to safe-haven assets during the U.S. government shutdown Bitcoin Rallies to Within 1% of All-Time High, Gaining Safe Haven Status During Shutdown^[2]. A record $313 million in leveraged short Bitcoin futures positions were liquidated between October 2-3, signaling a short squeeze that further fueled buying pressure Bitcoin Targets $125K as Macro Conditions and MVRV Model Signal Strong Breakout^[1]. Institutional investors are also reshaping the landscape, with spot Bitcoin ETFs facilitating over $3 billion in inflows in the past week alone Bitcoin Dominance Slides to 55%, Opening the Door for Altcoin Rotation^[4]. These ETFs, by removing barriers to entry for traditional investors, have transformed Bitcoin into a structural asset rather than a speculative bet Bitcoin Dominance Slides to 55%, Opening the Door for Altcoin Rotation^[4].

On-chain data underscores the resilience of Bitcoin's bull case. Centralized exchange reserves have hit multi-year lows, reducing available supply and tightening liquidity Bitcoin Dominance Slides to 55%, Opening the Door for Altcoin Rotation^[4]. The MVRV model's +1 standard deviation (SD) band at $138,800 is now a focal point, as historical breakouts at this level have preceded extended rallies Bitcoin Targets $125K as Macro Conditions and MVRV Model Signal Strong Breakout^[1]. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance over altcoins has dipped to 55%, a level seen as a transitionary phase for capital rotation into riskier assets TD Sequential Signals Sell for BTC, XRP, SOL, and ADA^[5]. However, the focus remains on Bitcoin's realized price, which reflects the average cost basis of holders and acts as a lagging indicator of market health. The current price above $120,000 has pushed the realized value higher, suggesting that long-term holders are accumulating at elevated levels Bitcoin Targets $125K as Macro Conditions and MVRV Model Signal Strong Breakout^[1].

Technical analysis highlights the importance of maintaining key support levels. Bitcoin must stay above $116,700 to preserve bullish momentum, as a breakdown could trigger a correction toward $95,500 . Conversely, a sustained close above $100,535 would invalidate bearish signals and open the door to further gains . Analysts caution that while the MVRV model and macroeconomic factors support the rally, short-term volatility remains a risk, particularly if put options continue to trade at a premium Bitcoin Targets $125K as Macro Conditions and MVRV Model Signal Strong Breakout^[1]. However, the broader trend is unambiguous: Bitcoin's market capitalization has surpassed $2.5 trillion, rivaling the valuation of global corporations like Amazon Bitcoin Dominance Slides to 55%, Opening the Door for Altcoin Rotation^[4]. This milestone underscores a shift in how markets perceive value, with decentralized protocols now commanding trust comparable to traditional institutions Bitcoin Dominance Slides to 55%, Opening the Door for Altcoin Rotation^[4].

The convergence of macroeconomic stability, institutional adoption, and on-chain strength positions Bitcoin as a cornerstone of the digital asset ecosystem. While technical indicators like the TD Sequential have flashed sell signals , these are viewed as short-term corrections within a larger bullish framework. The critical question is not whether Bitcoin can reach $139,000, but whether it can sustain its dominance amid evolving regulatory and macroeconomic dynamics. For now, the data suggests that Bitcoin's realized price is not just a reflection of past performance but a leading indicator of the next phase in its journey toward mainstream adoption.