Bitcoin News Today: Shrinking Bitcoin Premium Pits MicroStrategy's Strategy Against Analyst Doubts

MicroStrategy's (MSTR) Q3 2025 net income surged to $2.8 billion, driven by $3.9 billion in unrealized gains on its Bitcoin holdings, yet the company's market-adjusted net asset value (mNAV) multiple has contracted to 1.3×, sparking analyst concerns about its capital-raising capabilities and future growth, according to a Cryptopolitan report. The premium, which once exceeded 2× during the height of enthusiasm for its Bitcoin strategy, has declined as the cryptocurrency's volatility wanes and investor sentiment matures, according to a Coinotag article. Despite the earnings beat, shares fell nearly 40% from their November 2024 peak, reflecting skepticism over whether MicroStrategy can sustain its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation amid a narrowing valuation gap, as noted in a Bloomberg article.

Analysts from Cantor Fitzgerald, TD Cowen, and Maxim Group have cut price targets following the earnings report, citing slower Bitcoin price appreciation and a reduced pace of capital issuance as key risks, the Cryptopolitan report added. TD Cowen's Lance Vitanza noted that the fourth quarter has started "off to a slow start," with Bitcoin's price growth and premium reversal stifling capital raises, the Cryptopolitan piece said. Cantor Fitzgerald's Brett Knoblauch warned that a lower mNAV multiple limits MicroStrategy's ability to leverage its valuation excess for financing, a critical factor as the firm faces $689 million in annual interest and dividend expenses, the same report noted. To meet its $20 billion fourth-quarter operating income guidance, Bitcoin would need to reach $150,000 by year-end—a target Michael Saylor has reiterated but remains unattainable given its current price of $110,000, a point he made in a Crypto-Economy interview.

Saylor, who co-founded MicroStrategy and spearheaded its shift to a Bitcoin treasury company in 2020, has reaffirmed the company's focus on Bitcoin growth over mergers and acquisitions (M&A). During the Q3 earnings call, he dismissed M&A speculation, calling the process "uncertain" and "slow," while emphasizing transparency in Bitcoin purchases and digital credit issuance, as reported in a Coinotag report. "We are in an inflection point," Saylor said, noting that the firm's mNAV decline reflects a maturing Bitcoin market with reduced volatility, a point also covered by Crypto-Economy. CEO Phong Le added that M&A in the software sector is "notoriously complex," further cementing the company's commitment to its core strategy, according to a Markets.com report.

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin treasury now holds 640,808 BTC, valued at $70.9 billion, with an average acquisition cost of $74,032 per coin, according to a BiteMyCoin report. The company's Q3 results included $12.9 billion in BTC gains year-to-date, driven by institutional inflows and derivatives market growth, the Coinotag coverage noted. However, S&P Global Ratings assigned the firm a speculative "B-" credit rating, excluding Bitcoin from its evaluation and highlighting liquidity risks tied to its $8.2 billion in convertible debt, the BiteMyCoin article said. To offset these pressures, MicroStrategy has increased preferred share yields to 10.50% for November, aiming to attract capital for further Bitcoin purchases, according to an Investing.com analysis.

As the Bitcoin premium contracts and regulatory scrutiny intensifies, MicroStrategy's strategy hinges on its ability to execute its digital credit instruments and international capital raises, the Crypto-Economy interview observed. While Saylor remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, analysts caution that the firm's reliance on a single asset class and its narrow valuation multiple could constrain its potential. With $19.8 billion raised in 2025 to expand its holdings, the company's success will depend on whether Bitcoin can break through its psychological $150,000 threshold—a target Saylor insists is within reach by year-end, the same Crypto-Economy report noted.