Bitcoin News Today: Short-Term Sellers Drive Bitcoin Toward $100K Threshold

Short-term Bitcoin holders have intensified selling activity in the past week, with over 20,000 BTC moved to exchanges at a loss as of August 18, raising concerns about potential downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. On-chain analytics from platforms such as CryptoQuant and Glassnode indicate that this panic-driven selling behavior is reminiscent of patterns observed during the January correction, where STHs (short-term holders)—those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days—played a significant role in driving price volatility. According to data, the volume of BTC transferred to exchanges at a loss surged from 1,670 BTC on Sunday to 23,520 BTC by Tuesday, coinciding with a 3.5% dip in Bitcoin’s price to $114,400 from a high of $118,600 [1].

This recent trend highlights a key market dynamic: the tendency for short-term investors to exit during dips, often exacerbating downward momentum. Notably, STHs account for approximately 90% of the BTC sent to exchanges in loss, while long-term holders (LTHs), regardless of profit or loss status, contribute only 10% of the volume [1]. Analyst Kripto Mevsimi from CryptoQuant observed that this marks the first time since January’s correction that STH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) multiples have dipped below 1, signaling renewed pressure on short-term holders to realize losses. The analyst noted that this behavior could either indicate a weakening in momentum or a healthy market reset, depending on how quickly the selling is absorbed [1].

Bitcoin’s price action has also drawn attention to a critical price level, with analysts suggesting that breaking below $100,000 could signal a deeper correction. The current price resistance wall between $100,000 and $110,000, which has held for over 100 days since May, represents a key threshold for bears. Trading firm Swissblock highlighted that a sustained break below this level would require significant selling pressure, describing it as a “tough fight for bears.” Popular analyst AlphaBTC added that a close below $114,700 could trigger further downward movement toward the $110,000–$112,000 demand zone [1]. Meanwhile, prediction market Polymarket currently assigns a 73% probability that Bitcoin will settle at $114,000 by the end of the week, with a 39% chance of a close below $112,000 [1].

The market is also closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s upcoming FOMC minutes and Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, as these will shape macroeconomic sentiment and influence asset allocations. The minutes from the July meeting will provide insight into how policymakers evaluated the risks of inflation and employment before the next meeting, with the labor market being a critical variable in the rate-cut outlook. Markets have already priced in a high probability of a September rate cut, but any deviation from dovish expectations could impact risk assets, including Bitcoin [4].

In contrast to Bitcoin’s recent volatility, Ethereum’s ETFs experienced one of their largest outflows in history, with $197 million withdrawn on Monday. This follows a broader trend of investors shifting capital from Ethereum to Bitcoin in the wake of Bitcoin’s record highs. BlackRock and Fidelity were the top issuers of Ethereum ETF outflows, with $87 million and $79 million respectively leaving these funds. At the same time, Ethereum’s unstaking queue has hit new highs, with over 910,000 ETH ($3.9 billion) waiting in the queue, raising concerns about liquidity and the potential for a “unstakening” event, a term used to describe a sharp decline in the value of ETH relative to BTC [6].

Taken together, these developments suggest a complex interplay of market dynamics and macroeconomic signals shaping the near-term outlook for Bitcoin. While short-term holders continue to exert pressure through loss-realization selling, the broader market appears resilient, with long-term holders and institutional players showing continued accumulation. The next key test for Bitcoin will be its ability to retest and potentially break above the $120,000 level, which could reignite bullish momentum or trigger further consolidation. Investors remain cautious, particularly as geopolitical uncertainties persist and central bank decisions loom on the horizon.

Source: [1] Will Bitcoin Price Fall to $110k? Short-Term Holders Sell 22k BTC at a Loss (https://cointelegraph.com/news/will-bitcoin-price-fall-to-110k-short-term-holders-sell-22k-btc-at-a-loss) [2] Bitcoin STH Capitulation Selling Weakens: 16.8K BTC Sent (https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-sth-capitulation-selling-weakens-16-8k-btc/) [3] Bitcoin STH Capitulation Selling Weakens: 16.8K BTC Sent (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-104479-20250816) [4] Fed Minutes, UK Inflation, and RBNZ Decision Set the Tone for a Pivotal Week (https://www.equiti.com/jo-en/news/breaking-data/fed-minutes-uk-inflation-and-rbnz-decision-set-the-tone-for-a-pivotal-week/) [5] Markets Eye FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium (https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/en/markets-eye-fomc-minutes-and-jackson-hole-symposium-2/) [6] Spot Ether ETFs See $197M Outflows, Second-Largest Ever (https://cointelegraph.com/news/ether-etfs-197m-outflows-second-largest) [7] Ethereum ETFs Lose $197 Million—Even Worse Than Bitcoin (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethereum-etfs-lose-197-million-152531921.html)