Bitcoin News Today: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain: Bitcoin's Correction May Clear Path for Bullish Rebound

Bitcoin faces a potential 20% correction as on-chain metrics signal short-term distress among speculative traders, according to a new Glassnode analysis. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) metric, which tracks the profitability of coins held for less than 155 days, has turned negative, indicating mounting losses for recent buyers. This development mirrors patterns observed in April 2024, a period that preceded a significant bullish rally, according to a Coinotag analysis. Historically, such negativity in STH-NUPL often clears speculative excess, paving the way for stronger recoveries by flushing out weak hands and reducing over-leverage in the market, as an Ambcrypto analysis.

While short-term holders grapple with losses, long-term holders (LTHs) remain resilient. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the profitability of sold coins, stands at 2.3, reflecting sustained confidence among LTHs. This contrast highlights a market reset phase where short-term pain could translate into long-term opportunities. Glassnode's data shows that similar STH-NUPL dips in the past have led to bullish reversals, with Bitcoin building momentum from the $108,000 demand zone.

The current correction has been exacerbated by heavy selling from long-term holders, who have distributed around 104,000 BTC this month—the heaviest since July. This distribution, combined with short-term holders exiting at a loss, has capped Bitcoin's recovery attempts. Technical indicators like the Stochastic RSI suggest the asset is bouncing off oversold levels, but sustained momentum above $113,000—a key short-term holder cost basis—is needed to validate a bullish turnaround.

Amid the volatility, some analysts remain optimistic. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy and a major Bitcoin holder, predicted the price could surge to $150,000 by year-end 2025, citing favorable regulatory shifts and institutional adoption, according to a TradingView report. His forecast comes as U.S.-China trade tensions ease, with officials from both nations signaling a potential deal that could stabilize macroeconomic sentiment.

Bitcoin's price currently hovers near $108,590, holding above the critical $108,000 support level, according to a BeInCrypto report. A break above $110,000 could reignite bullish momentum, while deeper declines might test the $88,000 Active Investors' Realized Price—a metric often associated with deeper corrections. The derivatives market appears calmer post-October liquidations, with implied volatility dropping to 43% and options skew normalizing, but the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision remains a wildcard: a dovish outcome could preserve stability, while a hawkish surprise might reignite volatility, according to Glassnode insights.

Market participants are closely monitoring on-chain activity. The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap reveals Bitcoin's struggle to reclaim key supply clusters, with renewed selling from LTHs amplifying resistance at elevated levels. Meanwhile, short-term holders' capitulation—evidenced by a STH-NUPL of –0.05—suggests fragility in investor sentiment. Analysts emphasize that a shift in LTH behavior from distribution to accumulation is critical for a sustainable recovery.

As Bitcoin navigates this correction phase, the interplay between short-term distress and long-term resilience defines the narrative. While immediate challenges persist, historical parallels and technical indicators hint at a potential reversal—if support levels hold and macroeconomic conditions align.