Bitcoin News Today: Short-Term Holders Could Force Bitcoin’s Next Move Below $110K

Bitcoin is encountering mounting downward pressure as it trades below critical cost bases and support levels, raising concerns about potential short-term corrections in the market. The cryptocurrency, which reached an all-time high of over $124,500 earlier this month, has since retraced to hover near $110,000. According to Glassnode's weekly report, investors’ cost bases have been under pressure over the past six months, with short-term holders increasingly taking profits at break-even points, intensifying resistance to rebounds. Technically, Bitcoin has now fallen below the one-month realized price line at $115,300 and the three-month line at $113,700, but the six-month moving average at $107,440 remains a strong support level [1].

Analyst Axel Adler notes that the $100,000–$107,000 range represents a confluence of the STH Realized Price and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), two historically significant indicators that have acted as defensive zones during previous bullish cycles. A decisive break below the $110,000 level could trigger a deeper test of this support band [2]. According to CoinDesk, the cost-to-investment level for short-term holders is currently above $108,500, and a drop below $100,000 could spark widespread selling pressure. This pullback reflects growing concerns over capital outflows and increased sensitivity to price movements [1].

Short-term holders, particularly those with wallets aged 1–3 months, are now underwater as Bitcoin trades around $110,000. These investors, who have accumulated BTC since the April dip, hold approximately 8.82% of the total supply and may decide to sell at breakeven points to await more favorable entry opportunities. The average cost basis for these investors is significantly higher than the current price, making any rally above this range a potential resistance zone as they seek to lock in profits [3]. Meanwhile, long-term holders with wallets older than a year continue to hold strong, with only occasional whale activity observed, though signs suggest a potential shift of capital to Ethereum [3].

The $93,000–$110,000 range is also gaining attention as a potential floor for Bitcoin, with accumulation primarily coming from institutional and large-scale buyers during the late 2024 rally. This support zone has steadily matured and could provide a stabilizing effect unless sustained selling pressure leads to a capitulation event. Additionally, the 50-day and 100-day SMAs have become resistance levels at $111K–$116K, reflecting increased selling activity and a failure to reclaim the $123K high [2].

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, noting that strong fundamentals—such as institutional adoption and declining exchange reserves—continue to support the case for Bitcoin pushing past all-time highs in the coming months. However, the immediate focus remains on the $109,000–$112,000 pivot zone, where a weekly close above this range could reinforce the bullish trend, while a close below may accelerate a correction. The market is also bracing for the weekly options expiration event, which could introduce additional volatility [3]. For now, Bitcoin remains in a critical consolidation phase, with its near-term direction hinging on the ability of bulls to defend key support levels and regain upward momentum.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Faces Increasing Pressure Below Key Cost Base (https://www.panewslab.com/en/articles/23b3d937-e4c1-4066-af3a-4b41c7140863)

[2] Bitcoin STH Cost Basis Aligns With Critical Indicator (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1071111-20250827)

[3] Short-term wallets stoke selling pressure fears as BTC (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1076591-20250828)