Bitcoin News Today: Short-Term Holders Drive Bitcoin's Selloff as Long-Term Investors Stay Calm

Bitcoin's technical indicators have flashed a grim warning as the cryptocurrency confirmed a "death cross," a bearish pattern historically linked to prolonged downturns. On Nov. 16, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, marking the first such crossover since January 2024. The price dropped to $80,500, its lowest since April, erasing all 2025 gains and triggering over $1 billion in liquidations across crypto markets. The fear and greed index plummeted to 11, signaling extreme panic, while on-chain data showed realized losses surging to levels last seen during the 2022 FTX collapse.

The death cross, a classic technical signal, has historically preceded sharp declines. In 2022, a similar formation coincided with a 64% drop to $15,500, and in 2018 and 2020, it preceded 67% and 71% collapses, respectively. Analysts are split on whether this signals a new bear market or a temporary pullback. Some, like The Kobeissi Letter's Adam Kobeissi, frame the move as a "routine" bear market, while others, including Egrag Crypto, argue that moving averages have lost predictive power and that Bitcoin remains intact above key long-term support https://crypto.news/bitcoin-death-cross-analysts-split-on-outlook/.

Market structure has deteriorated further. Bitcoin's 50-week EMA was breached on Nov. 17, invalidating bullish trends.

Short-term holders are driving the selloff, with realized losses exceeding $800 million weekly, a level last seen in November 2022. Glassnode data highlights that STHs account for most of the capitulation, unwinding positions as prices fall below cost bases. Meanwhile, long-term holders remain relatively calm, suggesting deeper resilience in the market.

Historical patterns offer mixed signals. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that past death crosses eventually reversed, leading to renewed strength, though the 2022 downturn lasted 364 days. If the current cycle peaked in October 2025, a potential bottom could emerge by October 2026, mirroring prior cycles. On-chain metrics indicate ongoing distribution by experienced holders, complicating bullish narratives.

The macro environment adds uncertainty. Traders are bracing for the Federal Reserve's December rate decision, with debates over whether easing policy will reignite inflation or stabilize markets. Bitcoin's volatility has also been amplified by a "mechanical glitch" on Oct. 10, which triggered $19 billion in liquidations, and ongoing pressure from derivatives markets https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/bitcoin-price-flash-crashes-to-80000.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin must reclaim $100,000 and the 350-day moving average to invalidate the bear case. A rebound within seven days could signal a relief rally, while failure to retrace would likely confirm a deeper bearish trend. Analysts like Rekt Capital emphasize the urgency: "Price will need to reclaim it promptly on a relief rally to protect the structure."