Bitcoin News Today: Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Trigger Sell Wave as $107K Threshold Looms

Bitcoin short-term holders are once again realizing losses, a development analysts warn could trigger broader market pessimism if key price levels are breached. On-chain data from platforms like CryptoQuant and Alphractal show that over 20,000 BTC held by short-term holders (STHs)—those who have owned the asset for less than 155 days—were moved to exchanges at a loss in the past week. This is the first such event since January, when Bitcoin experienced one of its most significant corrections of the year. The recent selling pressure coincided with a 7.6% price drop from its recent all-time high of $118,600 to below $114,400, raising concerns about market stability.

Alphractal, a crypto analytics firm, has highlighted a critical threshold for Bitcoin: a sustained close below $107,000 could trigger widespread fear and pessimism. The firm noted that the realized price for short-term investors has now exceeded $107,000, meaning that a drop below this level would result in significant losses for this group. Additionally, Alphractal pointed to the presence of large liquidation pools in this price zone, particularly from highly leveraged long positions, which could exacerbate downward pressure.

Historically, similar loss-realization events have led to either a weakening of market momentum or a period of consolidation before a fresh rally. Analyst Kripto Mevsimi of CryptoQuant emphasized that this current dip could either flush out weak hands and allow for a stronger continuation of the bullish trend, or it could signal a breakdown in the upward momentum. The STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen below 1 for the first time since January, indicating that short-term investors are once again in the red.

The technical outlook also suggests that breaking below $100,000 would be a challenging task for bears. Swissblock, a trading firm, noted that the $100,000–$110,000 price range has acted as a support wall for over 100 days since Bitcoin broke above $100,000 in mid-May. However, the prediction market platform Polymarket gives a 73% probability of Bitcoin closing near $114,000 for the week, with a 39% chance of a drop below $112,000. These probabilities reflect the market's uncertainty ahead of major events like the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell is expected to comment on the central bank’s policy direction.

Despite the recent volatility, there are signs that some traders are buying the dip. Exchange netflow data from CryptoQuant has turned more negative, from -1.7K to -3.4K BTC per day, suggesting that more Bitcoin is being withdrawn from exchanges than being deposited. This indicates that traders are moving funds to wallets rather than exchanges, a sign of accumulation in anticipation of a potential price rebound.

Alphractal concluded that while a drop below $107,000 could trigger widespread fear, such conditions have historically created attractive entry points for strategic buyers. The firm emphasized that the market remains in a high-stakes phase, where the next few days could determine the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price action in the coming months.

Source: [1] Analytics Firm Warns: If Bitcoin Falls Below This Level, Fear and Pessimism Could Be Triggered in the Market (https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/analytics-firm-warns-if-bitcoin-falls-below-this-level-fear-and-pessimism-could-be-triggered-in-the-market/) [2] Short-term Bitcoin Holders Panic Sell 20K BTC This Week (https://cointelegraph.com/news/will-bitcoin-price-fall-to-110k-short-term-holders-sell-22k-btc-at-a-loss) [3] Bitcoin STHs Realize Losses for First Time Since January (https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-sths-realize-losses-for-first-time-since-january-impact-on-btc-price)