Bitcoin News Today: September Fed Rate Cut Odds Drop to 43% as Bitcoin Faces Key Support Test

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has fallen to 43%, down from over 63% before the July policy decision, as traders recalibrated their expectations following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious remarks during the July meeting [1]. The central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate within the 4.25%-4.50% range and signaled a "wait and see" approach ahead of the next decision. Powell emphasized inflation risks linked to tariffs and underscored the need for more economic clarity before adjusting monetary policy [1].

Bitcoin initially dipped to $115.7K in response to the hawkish tone, though it recovered to trade around $118.5K at press time [1]. The market’s shifting expectations—now favoring a 57% chance of holding rates steady—have contributed to a broader risk-off sentiment. Analysts suggest that rate cuts typically fuel risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, by easing financial conditions and increasing liquidity [1]. Matt Mena, a crypto strategist at 21Shares, compared the current environment to the fourth quarter of 2023, when similar macroeconomic conditions preceded Bitcoin reaching $100K [1].

However, the prolonged bull run may face headwinds. According to crypto analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin’s unrealized profit has surged to $1.4 trillion, hitting levels historically associated with record highs and increased selling pressure [1]. Mena warned that a breakdown of key support levels near $114K–$115K could push BTC toward $110K [1]. Meanwhile, Swissblock noted that Bitcoin could continue rising if quantitative easing or an influx of dollar liquidity materializes, offering a potential catalyst for further gains [1].

The broader market is also watching upcoming inflation data, particularly the PCE index, which could influence the Fed’s next move and investor sentiment. In the near term, macroeconomic pressures may cap Bitcoin below $120K and trigger profit-taking, but a potential Fed policy pivot in the mid-term remains a key bullish driver [1].

Source: [1] [September Fed rate cuts odds drop to 43% – Will Bitcoin’s bull run hold?](https://ambcrypto.com/september-fed-rate-cuts-odds-drop-to-43-will-bitcoins-bull-run-hold/)