Bitcoin News Today: September's Curse, a Weakening Dollar, and the Fight to Hold $100K

Bitcoin's price continues to experience a sharp decline, falling below $108,000, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of the ongoing bearish trend. Analysts and traders are closely monitoring key support levels and technical indicators to assess the potential trajectory of the cryptocurrency in the coming weeks.

Historically, September has been a challenging month for Bitcoin, marked by seasonal corrections as traders often lock in profits or reposition portfolios before the fourth quarter. Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed in the red for eight of the past twelve Septembers, with an average return of approximately −3.80%. Similarly, the S&P 500 has averaged around -1.20% in September since 1928. As the broader market trends influence Bitcoin’s performance, investors are watching for signs that this year may deviate from the norm.

Despite the current weakness, some market participants remain optimistic. The $105,000–$110,000 price range, which previously acted as resistance, has now become a critical support area, offering a potential foundation for a bullish reversal. Technical indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI), suggest that Bitcoin may not be as weak as its price chart indicates. Analyst ZYN notes that a "hidden bullish divergence" is forming, where the RSI has not fallen as much as the price has. This divergence is often interpreted as a sign that buyers are quietly stepping in, potentially setting the stage for a rally.

The weakening U.S. dollar is another factor that could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin in September. Currency traders are increasingly bearish on the dollar, citing a slowing economy and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened to −0.25, the lowest level in two years. A continued decline in the dollar could improve Bitcoin's chances of recovery, especially if the Fed initiates easing measures in the coming months.

However, the risks of a deeper correction remain. If Bitcoin fails to hold the $100,000 support level, some analysts warn that the current bull market could come to an end. Roman, a popular trader, emphasized that a drop below $100,000 would signal a more definitive bearish turn, as it would confirm the loss of the uptrend and a key support level at $112,000. On the other hand, if Bitcoin stabilizes near $104,500, it could serve as a catalyst for a short-term rebound, with wave analysis suggesting a potential bottom near $103,600 to $104,600.

The market’s uncertainty is also reflected in momentum indicators. The RSI and MACD have shown bearish divergences, suggesting that buyers may struggle to reclaim control in the near term. However, some traders are viewing the current price levels as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin, particularly around $100,000. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has identified $102,000 to $104,000 as a key accumulation zone, indicating that the market may be nearing the end of its corrective phase.

In the broader context, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can stabilize or if further declines are on the horizon. Traders and investors are advised to closely monitor key levels and technical signals, as the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments and investor sentiment.

Source: [1] Will Bitcoin price drop in September? (https://cointelegraph.com/news/will-bitcoin-price-drop-in-september) [2] Bitcoin bull market will be 'over' if $100K BTC price is lost (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-bull-market-over-if-100k-is-lost-trader) [3] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Slides to 2-Month Low But the Sell-Off ... (https://www.ccn.com/analysis/crypto/bitcoin-btc-price-low-sell-off/) [4] Large Dogecoin Holders Keep Accumulating Amid Market ... (https://icoholder.com/en/news/large-dogecoin-holders-keep-accumulating-amid-market-correction) [5] XRP Price Faces Critical Support Test at $2.84 as Market ... (https://blockchain.news/news/20250831-xrp-price-faces-critical-support-test-at-284-as-market)