Bitcoin News Today: U.S. Selloff vs. Asian Buying: Bitcoin's Market at a Crossroads

Bitcoin's spot market has transitioned from a sell-dominant phase to a neutral stance, with on-chain data indicating easing selling pressure and a potential stabilization of sentiment. The shift, highlighted by a neutral taker cumulative volume delta-a metric measuring net buy and sell volumes-suggests that the intense correction seen earlier this month may be nearing a pause. This development comes amid broader market dynamics, including ETF outflows, institutional recalibration, and regional trading divergences, as analysts weigh the implications for Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.

The recent selloff, which saw Bitcoin drop from an October peak of $126,500 to a seven-month low near $80,600, was driven by profit-taking, macroeconomic uncertainty, and a shift in institutional flows. U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted $5.95 billion in inflows in early October, recorded over $2.6 billion in cumulative outflows over the following three weeks. While this marked the largest monthly outflows since the ETFs' launch, analysts like Yorick Ashbourne note the correction differs from 2022-style capitulation, with continued interest in alternative crypto protocols and diversified products.

Technical indicators also point to a potential stabilization. Bitcoin's 14-day RSI has dipped to 32, signaling an oversold condition, while the daily MACD has reached a multi-year low, historically correlating with limited downside risk and significant upside potential. Additionally, the cost of downside protection via Bitcoin options has fallen sharply, with the premium for one-week puts over calls dropping to 4.5% from a 2025 high of 11%. These signals align with on-chain data showing a decline in the Risk-Off Signal, which Swissblock analysts interpret as evidence of waning capitulation and a possible shift in momentum.

Regional trading patterns further underscore the market's complexity. U.S. trading sessions have driven much of the recent sell-off, with the Coinbase Premium Index remaining deeply negative for nearly the entire month of November. In contrast, Asian markets have consistently absorbed dips, with analysts like Ki Young Ju attributing this to differing risk appetites and institutional buying. This divergence has created a "clockwork" dynamic, where U.S. selling is offset by Asian buyers until the next trading window.

Looking ahead, analysts remain divided on Bitcoin's trajectory. Elliott Wave analysis suggests a potential rally to $128,000–$157,000 by early 2026, contingent on a December close above $93,381. Fefe Demeny, the analyst who previously warned against buying Bitcoin at $120,000, now advocates for accumulation at current levels, citing his framework's consistency in identifying cycle tops and bottoms. Meanwhile, Swissblock cautions that a second, weaker selling wave could confirm a bottom, with price resilience at prior lows signaling a shift in control to bulls.

Macro factors, particularly Federal Reserve policy, add another layer of uncertainty. The probability of a December rate cut has rebounded to 69.3%, up from 30% last week, as liquidity injections and easing monetary policy are seen as bullish for risk assets. Analysts like Noelle Acheson argue that the market's positioning for a breakout-while directionally uncertain-indicates softer bets on further declines.

As Bitcoin hovers near $86,364, the path forward hinges on whether the current pause in selling pressure translates into a sustained recovery. With institutional flows, technical indicators, and regional dynamics all pointing to a potential inflection point, the market remains on edge for a catalyst-be it a Fed rate cut, renewed ETF inflows, or a breakout in price-to tip the balance.